Game three between the Miami Marlins (49-86; 24-42 away) and the San Francisco Giants (68-68; 39-28 home) is set for Sunday afternoon. The matchup will take place at Oracle Park at 4:10 p.m. EST. The series opener on Friday was closely contested, with a late three-run double from Matt Chapman clinching a 3-1 victory for the Giants. Will the final game of the series bring more excitement?
Marlins Struggling at the Bottom
In the National League, no team has a lower winning percentage than the Marlins. The year 2024 has been challenging, largely due to a severely injured pitching rotation. Recent trades have made the roster even thinner. As they head into Sunday, their starting pitcher remains uncertain. A minor league call-up is likely since rosters are expanding. Regardless of who takes the mound, the Marlins are aware of their bullpen’s strengths, which include a second-place rank in WAR, fourth in FIP, and eighth in ground ball percentage. However, they still hold a 4.14 ERA, placing them 23rd in the league. The question is: how will Miami navigate this game?
At the plate, the Marlins have struggled significantly. Their average of 3.77 runs per game ranks them among the lowest in Major League Baseball. They sit last in walk rate, 29th in on-base percentage, 29th in slugging percentage, and 27th in home runs. Despite achieving 104 stolen bases (12th in the league), they rank 25th in stolen-base percentage. Even following all the trades, Miami is 17th in batting average and strikeout rate. Will they be able to score more than one run this time around?
Giants Fighting for Relevance
The Giants needed Friday’s comeback, as they are currently 6.5 games behind in the wild-card race, making their chances appear slim. Trying to gain momentum, Logan Webb is set to start on Sunday. The All-Star boasts an impressive 2.26 ERA at home and a 2.57 ERA in day games, finishing August with a 2.16 ERA. San Francisco has triumphed in five of Webb’s last six outings. However, their bullpen is ranked 21st in ERA, sixth in FIP, and 19th in WAR. Can they contain the Marlins once again?
Offensively, the Giants are averaging 4.26 runs per contest, placing them 18th among major league teams. Their batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage all rank 18th, 18th, and 19th, respectively. They excel slightly in walk rate (11th) but sit 20th in strikeout rate and 21st in home runs. With only 55 stolen bases (the second fewest), they maintain the third-lowest stolen-base percentage. Will they produce enough runs to secure another win?
Betting Insights for Marlins vs. Giants
The Marlins’ offense has struggled, averaging the second-fewest runs in the league. Facing Logan Webb, who has a remarkable 2.26 ERA at home and strong performance in August, they are unlikely to score significantly. The Giants’ pitching staff appears solid.
San Francisco’s lineup is expected to face a rookie pitcher, which could work in their favor. They likely won’t need to put up many runs to win by several runs, similar to their performance on Friday. Early offensive production from the Giants may prove decisive in covering the run line.
