College football playoff projections indicate that being the No. 4-ranked team in this year’s 12-team College Football Playoff may not be the most advantageous position.
This conclusion emerged while reviewing the initial CFP rankings for the season. After five weeks of competitive matchups, it’s clear that the SEC and Big Ten are dominating the landscape of college football. The current outlook suggests that the No. 4 team may very well belong to the ACC or Big 12. As the rankings stand, it appears that being the No. 5 team might actually be more favorable than holding the No. 4 position.
The No. 5 seed has the exciting opportunity to host a playoff game for the first time in college football history. Following that, they would face the weakest Power 4 conference champion at a neutral site. A victory in this matchup would propel them into the semifinals, where they would likely encounter the top-ranked team, albeit after that team has already played a game.
The playoff field will comprise the top five conference champions alongside the next seven highest-ranked at-large teams. The top four conference champions will receive a bye in the opening round, while the fifth conference champion will be seeded based on its CFP ranking.
While the top four conference champions enjoy a bye, teams seeded 5 through 8 will have the privilege of hosting playoff games. The quarterfinal and semifinal rounds will take place at former New Year’s Six bowl game sites, culminating with the national champion being determined on January 20 in Atlanta.
With the preliminary projections in place, here are the anticipated rankings for the 2024 college football season:
1. Alabama
Conference: SEC
Record: 4-0
2. Ohio State
Conference: Big Ten
Record: 4-0
3. Miami (Fla.)
Conference: ACC
Record: 5-0
4. Iowa State
Conference: Big 12
Record: 4-0
5. Texas
Conference: SEC
Record: 5-0
6. Tennessee
Conference: SEC
Record: 4-0
7. Georgia
Conference: SEC
Record: 3-1
8. Penn State
Conference: Big Ten
Record: 4-0
9. Clemson
Conference: ACC
Record: 3-1
10. Oregon
Conference: Big Ten
Record: 4-0
11. Missouri
Conference: SEC
Record: 4-0
12. Boise State
Conference: Mountain West
Record: 3-1
With the projected seeding established, the next step is to examine the potential first-round matchups:
1. Alabama: Bye (would then play the winner of Penn State vs. Clemson)
2. Ohio State: Bye (would then play the winner of Georgia vs. Oregon)
3. Miami: Bye (would then play the winner of Tennessee vs. Missouri)
4. Iowa State: Bye (would then play the winner of Boise State vs. Texas)
5. Texas (SEC championship runner-up) vs. Boise State (highest-ranked Group of 5 champion)
6. Tennessee (one of the top-12 teams) vs. 11. Missouri (one of the top-12 teams)
Missouri has maintained an undefeated record, including a victory over a top 25 opponent, while Tennessee boasts two wins against top 25 teams. This matchup illustrates the SEC’s dominance in college football.
7. Georgia (one of the top-12 teams) vs. 10. Oregon (one of the top-12 teams)
The previous encounter between Dan Lanning and his former team resulted in a 49-3 defeat for Oregon. However, that game laid the groundwork for Oregon’s recent success, including consecutive 10-win seasons. Lanning would welcome the chance to return to Georgia and demonstrate the progress his team has made.
Carson Beck has led Georgia to a 3-1 record heading into Week 6 of the college football season. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
8. Penn State (Big Ten championship runner-up) vs. 9. Clemson (ACC championship runner-up)
The matchup would mark Penn State’s first appearance in the CFP, taking place at Beaver Stadium against a program that has not only participated in the CFP but has also secured national titles in the era.
Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney has led the Tigers to a 3-1 start. (Photo by David Jensen/Getty Images)