College Football Playoff predictions reveal a significant shift this year, marking the inaugural season of the 12-team playoff format. Under the previous four-team structure, only about 12 teams typically had a realistic shot at making the College Football Playoff (CFP) at this point in the season. However, this year, an impressive 27 programs still maintain a viable path to the playoffs. If the four-team format were still in play, only 14 teams would be in contention, highlighting the excitement and inclusivity this new format brings to the sport.
Before exploring the 27 teams vying for a playoff spot, it’s essential to examine the projected 12-team field.
First-round byes
1. Oregon
2. Georgia
3. Clemson
4. BYU
In this scenario, Oregon is projected to triumph over Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship, Georgia is expected to defeat Texas in the SEC Championship, Clemson is forecasted to beat Miami (Fla.) in the ACC Championship, and BYU is anticipated to overcome Kansas State for the Big 12 title. With an undefeated record, Oregon would hold a slight advantage over Georgia. Clemson remains a strong contender, and BYU is drawing comparisons to the TCU team that reached the national championship game in 2022.
First-round matchups
No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 12 Boise State
No. 6 Texas vs. No. 11 Miami (Fla.)
No. 7 Penn State vs. No. 10 Alabama
No. 8 Notre Dame vs. No. 9 Tennessee
First team out: Indiana
If Ohio State reaches the Big Ten Championship, it will likely defeat either Penn State or Indiana. This scenario would secure the Buckeyes the No. 5 seed, particularly if they narrowly lose to Oregon.
Consequently, Texas would drop to No. 6 due to a lack of quality wins. While Texas could potentially defeat Texas A&M in College Station, a projected loss for the Aggies against South Carolina could diminish the significance of a Longhorns victory.
Both Penn State and Notre Dame are likely to end the season at 11-1. If the Nittany Lions lose this weekend but win their remaining games, they could secure the No. 7 seed. Notre Dame would follow at No. 8, having been affected by their loss to Northern Illinois.
Tennessee and Alabama are projected to finish at 10-2. If Alabama achieves this record, they would have notable victories over Georgia and LSU. However, Tennessee would rank higher due to their earlier win against Alabama.
Examining the playoff landscape, 27 teams remain in contention for the coveted playoff spots, categorized by their respective conferences.
SEC (7)
Georgia, Texas, Tennessee, and Texas A&M
These teams could afford to lose another regular season game and still make the CFP based on their current standings. However, Texas A&M faces a critical challenge. They must win their next three games against South Carolina, New Mexico State, and Auburn before facing Texas in their season finale. Despite a non-conference loss to Notre Dame, the Aggies need to avoid being in a precarious position alongside them. If both teams finish at 10-2, Notre Dame’s head-to-head victory could prove decisive.
Alabama, Ole Miss, and LSU
These teams must win all remaining games to maintain playoff aspirations. The Alabama vs. LSU matchup on November 6 is essentially a playoff elimination game. Ole Miss also faces pressure to defeat Georgia.
Missouri, despite a potential 10-2 finish, would likely miss out due to a lack of ranked wins and two blowout losses against ranked opponents.
Big Ten (5)
Oregon
With an 8-0 record, the Ducks have the clearest path to the CFP among all teams. Their position in the Big Ten Championship game is virtually assured, along with a spot in the 12-team playoff.
Penn State
The Nittany Lions are likely to secure a playoff spot if they finish 11-1. However, if they lose two games in November, they might find themselves among the 10-2 teams missing the postseason due to a lack of significant victories. Winning this weekend is crucial for their aspirations.
Indiana
The Hoosiers are of particular interest regarding the committee’s rankings. They should be positioned above the undefeated Miami team due to their dominance this season. However, if the committee mirrors the AP Poll’s view, Indiana will need at least an 11-1 record to secure a playoff berth.
Ohio State
The Buckeyes must win games they are expected to win (against Purdue, Northwestern, and Michigan). They should aim to win at least one matchup against Penn State or Indiana. The Ohio State brand is strong enough that a 10-2 record would likely secure them a CFP spot, but they would prefer to win all their games and compete for the Big Ten title.
Michigan
Michigan has a slim chance of making the CFP with a potential 9-3 record. The committee is expected to consider a team’s performance at the end of the season. If Michigan can win out, their victories over Oregon, Indiana, and Ohio State could bolster their case, especially given their defensive strengths when healthy.
Big 12 (4)
BYU and Iowa State
For both the Cougars and Cyclones, the path is straightforward: continue winning to secure a playoff spot. Initially, there were doubts about the Big 12 securing two bids, but if both teams reach the conference title game undefeated, the loser would likely finish with a solid 12-1 record, including wins over bubble teams.
Kansas State and Colorado
ACC (4)
Miami (Fla.) and Clemson
For the ACC to secure two playoff bids, Clemson must defeat Miami in the conference title game, handing the Hurricanes their only regular-season loss. Miami cannot afford any slip-ups in the regular season if they hope to make it as an at-large team. If Clemson finishes the regular season undefeated, they could also secure a playoff spot as an 11-2 at-large team.
Pitt
SMU
Both teams must run the table to remain in playoff contention, particularly since SMU’s only loss was to BYU.
Independents (1)
Notre Dame
Group of 5 (6)
Boise State
If Boise State clinches the Mountain West title, they will likely represent the Group of 5 in the playoffs.
Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty leads the nation in rushing yards and is among the favorites to win the Heisman. (Photo by Ian Maule/Getty Images)
Army
Army is another strong contender, currently undefeated. If they maintain their winning streak and Boise State falters, Army could seize the Group of 5 position.
UNLV
Should chaos ensue in the AAC, and if UNLV defeats Boise State in the Mountain West Championship, they would likely have a favorable chance for the Group of 5 spot, bolstered by their recognition in the AP Top 25 Poll throughout the season.
Navy, Tulane, Memphis
For any of these teams to secure a playoff spot, they would need to win the AAC and hope Boise State does not win the Mountain West.
