College football Week 12 was nothing short of thrilling.
In a historic upset, Ole Miss triumphed over No. 2 Georgia, marking their most significant home victory to date. Meanwhile, No. 4 Miami faced disappointment again, falling to an unranked Georgia Tech team for the second consecutive year. No. 8 Indiana barely escaped with a five-point win against unranked Michigan, while BYU, still undefeated, edged past their in-state rival Utah by just one point. Alabama showcased their dominance by crushing LSU with a score of 42-13, and No. 17 Iowa State suffered a surprising defeat, losing 45-36 to a struggling Kansas team.
Such weekends spark extensive conversations among the team at FOX Sports as they prepare for Big Noon Kickoff. Each Sunday night, reflections on the previous day’s events lead to detailed emails sent to producers, researchers, and on-air colleagues, sharing insights on the games and highlighting notable developments for the upcoming week.
This week, fans can expect ten ranked teams to hit the road against unranked opponents, alongside two exciting ranked matchups. Notably, eight of the top 10 teams in the AP poll are in action this weekend, with 21 of the top 25 also taking to the field.
Now, let’s explore the key matchups and insights for Week 12.
Cream of the crop
As the season progresses into its twelfth week, the true powerhouses are becoming clear through advanced metrics. Currently, only four teams in FBS rank within the top 10 for both offensive and defensive efficiency: Ohio State (4th in offense, 7th in defense), Alabama (6th in offense, 8th in defense), Ole Miss (8th in offense, 6th in defense), and Penn State (10th in both categories). Each of these teams boasts a strength of record in the top 12 and a strength of schedule ranking in the top 30. The upcoming CFP rankings will be particularly intriguing, especially since Ohio State is the only team among them facing a currently ranked opponent (they will take on Indiana in two weeks). The Buckeyes’ remaining schedule includes games against 4-5 Northwestern and 5-5 Michigan, while Penn State’s last three opponents are 1-8 Purdue, 4-5 Maryland, and 6-4 Minnesota. Alabama will face FCS opponent Mercer this week, followed by 5-5 Oklahoma and 3-6 Auburn to close their season. Lastly, Ole Miss will finish their regular season against 4-5 Florida and 2-8 Mississippi State.
CFP rankings
With the second edition of the CFP rankings on the horizon, speculation arises about which team in the current top 12 may not make the final cut. A potential scenario could see 11-1 Indiana (if they lose in Columbus) competing as a fourth Big Ten team against a fifth SEC team at 10-2 for one of the last spots. Both the SEC and Big Ten will be closely watching USC’s final game against Notre Dame, as the Irish currently sit at 8-1 as independents. If Louisville remains ranked, Notre Dame may have a strong case for inclusion, thanks to their victories over Texas A&M and the Cardinals.
In a conservative outlook, the playoff picture could feature the ACC Champion, the Big 12 Champion, a Group of 5 Champion, and then nine spots for Notre Dame, the Big Ten, and the SEC. It appears challenging for both the ACC and Big 12 to secure two teams each in the playoff. The next few weeks promise to be pivotal.
Houston trying to go bowling
Houston has turned their season around, winning three of their last four games after suffering back-to-back shutouts against Cincinnati and Iowa State. Following a bye week, they upset No. 17 Kansas State as 13-point underdogs. If the Cougars can clinch two wins out of their final three games, they will become bowl eligible in Willie Fritz’s first year as head coach. This turnaround is remarkable, especially after being outscored 54-0 in those two shutout games. Historically, only four teams have reached a bowl game after being shut out twice in a season during the BCS/CFP Era: 1998 Ole Miss, 2009 Minnesota, 2009 Wyoming (which faced three shutouts), and 2023 Iowa, which was shut out for a third time in a bowl game loss to Tennessee.
Looking ahead to Hoosiers
Imagine a scenario in 2024 where Indiana has defeated both the reigning national champions and the 2023 runner-ups. This is a reality for the Hoosiers, who stand at 10-0 for the first time in their program’s history, with victories over Michigan and Washington by a combined score of 51 to 32. Curt Cignetti’s team leads all of FBS in scoring differential (+301), ranks second in scoring (43.9 points per game), and is seventh in scoring defense (allowing just 13.8 points per game). They are one of only four undefeated teams left and are on a bye this week, gearing up for a significant matchup against the Buckeyes next week. Fans should prepare for an exciting showdown.
So many ranked matchups
Huskers in a pickle
Nebraska finds itself in a difficult situation, having lost eight consecutive games when entering with five wins. Their chances for bowl eligibility are slipping away. The Huskers are nine-point underdogs this week against the Trojans in Los Angeles and will host Wisconsin before heading to Iowa to conclude the season. After starting 5-1, the possibility of finishing the year at 5-7 and missing a bowl game looms large. Matt Rhule faces a critical task to turn things around, having brought in Dana Holgorsen to assist with the offense this week.
Mountain West madness
The Mountain West conference is heating up this weekend. While many anticipate a rematch between Boise State and UNLV in the conference title game, Colorado State currently leads the pack with a 4-0 record in Mountain West play and has the power to dictate their own destiny. The Rams face 2-7 Wyoming this Friday, followed by matchups against 5-5 Fresno State and 2-7 Utah State. This situation could impact Boise’s standing if they end up facing the Rams instead of the Rebels.
Additionally, the Broncos will take on San Jose State this week. Spencer Danielson’s team did not impress last week, and the Spartans nearly pulled off an upset against Washington State earlier this season (Wazzu is currently 8-1 and ranked 19th in the AP poll). Coach Ken Niumatalolo has a history of pulling off upsets, with six wins against ranked opponents during his time at Navy. Can he achieve his first victory with the Spartans?
Longhorns take on Razorbacks
The rivalry between Texas and Arkansas dates back to 1894. Texas leads the all-time series 56-23, though they have lost the last two encounters. This week marks their first meeting since 2021, and it will be the sixth matchup since 2000, where Texas holds a 2-3 record. Currently, the Longhorns are favored by 14 points. An interesting note: a book titled “Horns, Hogs and Nixon Coming” chronicles the 1969 game in Fayetteville, where Texas, down 14-0 in the fourth quarter, rallied to score 15 points and win by one. This game is often regarded as one of the greatest in college football history.
Cardiac Cougars
The season has seen the rise of the Cardiac Cougars, as BYU has achieved a 9-0 record, with five of those victories coming by seven points or less and three by three points or less. Last week, they secured a one-point win over 4-4 Utah, aided by several close calls and a game-winning field goal as time expired. To guarantee a spot in the Big 12 title game, they need two wins in their final three games, starting with this week’s matchup against 3-6 Kansas, where they are favored by just three points at home. Historically, since 1978, teams with a 9-0 record facing a losing team at home have always been double-digit favorites—until now. Oddsmakers are clearly wary of the Cougars.
Colorado’s path to the Big 12 title game
Consider the remarkable turnaround for Colorado. Just six weeks ago, they were down seven points against Baylor with only five seconds left and already had two losses. Now, they stand as potential favorites for the Big 12 championship, currently second in the conference standings with a 5-1 record in Big 12 play and a 7-2 overall record, trailing only undefeated BYU. Their final three opponents—Utah, Kansas, and Oklahoma State—have a combined record of 10-18, presenting a favorable path to the title. However, if they stumble, Arizona State, Iowa State, and Kansas State are all close behind with 4-2 records in conference play. Travis Hunter has emerged as a leading Heisman candidate at +130, making the upcoming weeks even more exciting for the Buffs.
Tough times for Tigers
Auburn is facing significant challenges under head coach Hugh Freeze, with a record of 4-10 in SEC play, 5-12 against Power conference opponents, and 0-12 against teams that finished with a winning record. This week, they are expected to defeat UL Monroe but will need to also overcome Texas A&M and Alabama to secure bowl eligibility. The Tigers have lost their last four bowl appearances, with their last victory in a bowl game dating back to 2018.
Clinching scenarios in the American
This Saturday features a critical AAC matchup as Navy hosts Tulane. A victory for the Green Wave would secure their spot in the title game alongside Army, who remains undefeated with two AAC games remaining. In that case, the only teams with two conference losses would be Tulane and Army. Conversely, if Navy wins, the playoff picture will remain uncertain until the final regular season game against the undefeated Black Knights.
How ’bout them Devils?
The Sun Devils have emerged as a remarkable story this season. Initially predicted to finish last in the Big 12 preseason poll, Kenny Dillingham has led them to a 4-2 conference record and a 7-2 overall standing, placing them third behind BYU and Colorado. While they face an uphill battle to reach the Big 12 title game, it remains a possibility. They must win at least one of their next two games against Kansas State and BYU, while also hoping for some losses from other teams. Cam Skattebo’s health is crucial; he missed last week due to injury and his status for this week against the Wildcats remains uncertain. His impressive 1,405 scrimmage yards rank fifth among all FBS players, along with 13 total touchdowns.
Showdown in Athens
Georgia faces pressing questions regarding their performance this season. Is it the quarterback Carson Beck, the offensive line, or perhaps a lack of receiver talent? Last week’s game was particularly disappointing, especially after witnessing their defense’s earlier performance in Austin. Georgia has not lost consecutive regular season games since 2016, a streak spanning 94 games. They have a pivotal matchup against Tennessee, who currently tops the SEC with a 5-1 conference record and an overall record of 8-1. The Bulldogs are favored by 9.5 points at home and must secure a victory to keep their CFP aspirations alive. The status of Volunteer quarterback Nico Iamaleava is uncertain after leaving last week’s game against Mississippi State due to injury, adding another layer of intrigue to this matchup, which promises to be the game of the week.
Camp Randall troubles
Wisconsin will host the top-ranked Oregon team this week, a matchup that could spell trouble for Luke Fickell’s squad. The Badgers have struggled against current top ten teams at home this season, having been outscored 70-23 in losses to Alabama and Penn State. This Saturday could see a similar outcome, raising concerns about Wisconsin’s ability to bounce back.
Gamecocks so close
For Shane Beamer’s South Carolina team, the season has been a mix of highs and lows. Currently sitting at 6-3, they let a significant lead slip away against LSU and narrowly lost to Alabama, 27-25. They could easily be 8-1, with their only loss being a lopsided defeat against Ole Miss. Ranked 23rd in the AP poll, the Gamecocks have won three consecutive games, highlighted by an impressive 44-20 victory over then-No. 10 Texas A&M.
