Patrick Mahomes consistently proves profitable as an underdog.
Since stepping into the starting role in September 2018, Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs have faced the underdog tag 14 times. Their impressive record stands at 11 wins and 3 losses straight up (SU), along with an extraordinary 12 wins, 1 loss, and 1 push against the spread (ATS) during this period.
Is a 92% cover rate impressive?
Despite this remarkable performance, the betting market has shifted away from Kansas City ahead of their upcoming clash with the Buffalo Bills. DraftKings Sportsbook initially listed Kansas City as a -1 favorite on the road, but the line has now moved, with Buffalo favored by as much as -2.5.
“We opened Buffalo -2,” a Las Vegas bookmaker shared with FOX Sports. “We don’t prioritize being the first to post. Once the market settles, we adjust. Interestingly, our first significant bet came in on Buffalo, which caught us off guard.”
Throughout the week, the line has fluctuated between Bills -2 and -2.5, attracting enthusiastic two-way action from various betting shops. There are strong arguments to be made for both teams. Many bettors are eager to support Josh Allen and the Bills as short home favorites, while others are drawn to Mahomes as the underdog.
It seems unlikely that the line will rise much further.
“There’s always someone willing to take a 3,” the bookmaker added.
With the NFL’s second-highest point differential at +97, Buffalo boasts a flawless 4-0 record at home this season, including a narrow 34-28 victory over Arizona, a 37-point win against Jacksonville, a 24-point triumph over Tennessee, and a close 30-27 win against Miami.
None of those opponents can match the strength of Kansas City, a team that Scott Van Pelt remarked last Monday is not invincible, yet seems to be a challenge for everyone.
That’s a strong statement.
“Injury updates will play a significant role in this matchup,” noted professional bettor Adam Chernoff from Right Angle Sports when speaking to FOX Sports.
“It appears that Dalton Kincaid might miss the game for Buffalo. On the other hand, [JuJu] Smith-Schuster could return for the Chiefs. Additionally, there are concerns about Keon Coleman’s health for Buffalo. This season, the Chiefs’ defense has excelled against the run, which is a crucial aspect of the Bills’ offensive strategy.
“This game feels reminiscent of the Chiefs-49ers matchup from a few weeks ago, both in terms of market sentiment and analysis. In high-stakes games, the Chiefs may frequently be outgained in yards per play, but they have a knack for scoring points.
“While I usually regard that as an anomaly, I must give credit to [Andy] Reid and Mahomes. They find ways to succeed, and the team is gradually getting healthier. I can’t shake the feeling that this line has shifted too far in favor of the Bills, and despite its popularity, I’m leaning towards the Chiefs +2 here.”
Chernoff’s perspective resonates, and I also favor the Chiefs in a teaser this week. A two-team, six-point teaser could elevate the Chiefs to +8.5 while pairing them with the Cincinnati Bengals at +7.5. Both sides need to cover their adjusted numbers for a win, and I feel confident about this strategy.
If the Chiefs lose by 10, I’ll acknowledge their performance.
