Biggest challengers to a Chiefs three-peat? Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs aim to achieve an unprecedented feat in the Super Bowl era: a three-peat.
Could they be the ones to etch their names in history?
As the wild-card weekend approaches, FOX Sports has pinpointed five NFL teams that pose the most significant threats to the Chiefs’ pursuit of a third consecutive Lombardi Trophy.
This season’s dynamics have shifted the landscape. Notably, the San Francisco 49ers are no longer on the list after missing the playoffs.
With the postseason now in full swing, here’s the revised ranking of the Chiefs’ contenders, listed in descending order:
5. Philadelphia Eagles
Snapshot: The Eagles have achieved their second-ever 14-win season, largely thanks to the addition of Saquon Barkley, who made history as the ninth player to rush for 2,000 yards in a single season. Additionally, Philadelphia showcases one of the most formidable defenses in the league. However, the availability of quarterback Jalen Hurts is uncertain for the playoffs, as he missed the final two regular-season games due to a concussion. His status remains unclear for the upcoming wild-card game against the Packers.
Why the Eagles can beat the Chiefs: Mahomes may find his opportunities to connect downfield limited against a skilled Eagles secondary. This season, Philadelphia led the league in total pass defense, allowing just 174.2 passing yards per game, and ranked second in pass EPA allowed per play, according to Next Gen Stats. Consequently, the Chiefs could be forced to rely on a rushing attack that finished 22nd in 2024. The Eagles are also strong against the run, ranking 10th in rush defense with 104.2 rushing yards allowed per game and fifth in rush EPA per play allowed.
4. Minnesota Vikings
Snapshot: The Vikings emerged as one of the biggest surprises of 2024. Despite losing Kirk Cousins to free agency and first-round rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy to injury, Minnesota still managed to secure 14 wins, the second-most in franchise history, under the leadership of quarterback Sam Darnold. Coach Kevin O’Connell has successfully guided the Vikings to at least 13 wins in two of his first three seasons, and his offense remains dynamic. Meanwhile, defensive coordinator Brian Flores steers one of the league’s most aggressive defenses.
Why the Vikings can beat the Chiefs: Despite the Chiefs’ robust defense, which ranks fourth in points allowed and ninth in yards allowed, there are vulnerabilities that can be exploited through the air. Kansas City has been average in allowing passing EPA per play on intermediate throws, ranking 15th overall, which aligns well with Minnesota’s offensive strengths. Darnold’s 140 attempts at intermediate throws ranked second in the league, while superstar Justin Jefferson led all wide receivers in intermediate receiving yards during the regular season.
3. Detroit Lions
Why the Lions can beat the Chiefs: The Lions’ aggressive strategy on fourth down sets them apart.
Facing the Chiefs requires boldness in scoring situations. Teams must be willing to pursue substantial leads, knowing Mahomes is on the opposite side. Under coach Dan Campbell, Detroit not only embraces this aggressive mindset but also possesses the offensive firepower to outpace Kansas City in a potential Super Bowl clash.
The Lions ranked second in EPA per play and EPA per pass on fourth down, along with fifth in EPA per rush on fourth down during the regular season. In contrast, the Chiefs stood 12th in EPA per play allowed on fourth down and 18th in EPA allowed per rush attempt, indicating potential openings for running backs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, the latter of whom is expected to be fit for the divisional round after an MCL injury.
Derrick Henry in form is a significant concern for Kansas City, which has historically struggled against him. In his previous six matchups against the Chiefs, including playoffs, Henry accumulated 672 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, averaging 5.6 yards per carry.
1. Buffalo Bills
Snapshot: Many analysts predicted a rebuilding year for the Buffalo Bills after the departure of several key players, including star receiver Stefon Diggs, who was traded to the Houston Texans. However, the Bills exceeded expectations by winning 13 games and clinching the AFC East for the fifth consecutive year. They even triumphed over two eventual 14-win teams: the Chiefs and Lions. Quarterback Josh Allen has emerged as a leading MVP candidate.
[Related: Is Josh Allen the MVP? His Bills teammates say: ‘Just turn the tape on’]
[Related: Why Bills QB Josh Allen deserves the MVP over Ravens’ Lamar Jackson]
Why the Bills can beat the Chiefs: While the Bills have struggled to convert regular-season wins into playoff victories against Kansas City during the Allen era (4-1 in regular season, 0-3 in playoffs), their capacity to generate pressure may provide an edge this time around.
Buffalo recorded a 34.7% pressure rate during the regular season while blitzing at the league’s fourth-lowest rate (19.4%). This means the Bills can disrupt Mahomes with their front four, maintaining solid coverage in the secondary.
Mahomes experienced a career-high 36 sacks this season, along with a career-high 5.85 sack rate. In their Week 11 matchup, the Bills handed the Chiefs their first loss of the season, achieving a 37.1% pressure rate, one of the highest against Mahomes this year, and generating 13 pressures, including one that led to an interception.
The Bills have already bested the Chiefs once this season, which raises the possibility of repeating that success. If they do, it would mark the end of Kansas City’s hopes for a historic three-peat.
