Best NBA prop bets today: SuperDraft player prop picks for Game 6 of Suns-Nuggets

Devin Booker (Phoenix Suns), Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets)

Two-time MVP Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets are looking to wrap up their Western Conference Semifinals series with the Suns at the Footprint Center tonight (10 p.m. ET, ESPN), but Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and co. appear dominant at home. At BetMGM, Phoenix still has the advantage at -3.5 and a -160 moneyline. We’ve already broken down Game 6 from a betting perspective; Now we’re going to highlight our favorite SuperDraft picks and put together a prop combo in hopes of raking in some cash.

This series was dominated by the home team, but Jokic, Booker and Durant were the constants home and away, delivering three of the NBA’s best postseason performances in recent memory. Even though their cheeks are as swollen as my cheeks are after bad shellfish, it’s hard to be without one of these three superstars in the way they’re cooking right now.

It can be difficult to hinder situations like tonight. The Suns have maintained a 4-1 home record this postseason, and Book and KD combined for 158 points in Games 3 and 4 in Phoenix. These guys need to be exhausted as nobody has emerged as a consistent third goalscorer for Monty Williams’ roster and Denver remains one of the densest eight-man rotations in the league.

Will the wheels of Phoenix’ valiant comeback go off the rails tonight, or will the Nugs fall by the wayside once again? We discuss all of this in our SuperDraft Prop Picker for Game 6.

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In SuperDraft, bettors can select an over/under for two or more player props. If both props hit in a two-leg game, bettors win up to triple their stake. Each time another prop is added, the return increases. Think of it as a “same-game parlay.” More legs mean more risk, but also a bigger potential payoff. However, not all players have the same benefits. So keep that in mind as you pick your over/under games and try to win some money in today’s game.

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SuperDraft Player Prop Picks for Suns Nuggets Game 6

Nikola Jokic, C, Nuggets – OVER 13.5 rebounds

Devin Booker (Phoenix Suns), Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets)

Jokic has been bloody cheat code for prop bettors all season, a fact that only seemed to get worse in the postseason. The two-time MVP has caught 14 or more rebounds in half of Denver’s 10 games this postseason, including a 17-board hit in Denver’s final Game 5 of the first round against the Wolves. DeAndre Ayton was stunned by the Joker’s strength and tenacity indoors, and Jock Landale has limited help from the bench. Now Ayton has been scratched with a bruised rib since Game 6, likely resulting in KD spending some time with the Fives and eliminating both Landale and Bismack Biyombo. None of these guys can fight with Joker on the boards. He’s a 7-foot, 280-pound freight train with a 7-3 wingspan and a fantastic ability to read rims. It’s almost unfair! Hit the OVER and flash a Joker smile every time he tumbles over an overwhelmed sun.

Devin Booker, G, Suns – UNDER 32 points

Devin Booker Phoenix Suns

Excited after Chris Paul’s groin injury, Booker scored 47 points in Game 3 and 36 in Game 4, but he came back down to earth in Game 5 and finished the game with a tally of 28 points, six rebounds and four assists seems almost like a pedestrian zone. Worse still, Book appeared to be handicapped multiple times during the 118-112 loss in Denver. He’s averaged 42.3 minutes per game this postseason, and flights between high-altitude Phoenix and the Mile High City are taking their toll on the superstar guard. With Nuggets guard Jamal Murray now “questionable” due to a non-COVID illness, we expect the Suns to win this game with relative ease. Make sure that Monty Williams keeps Book under 40 minutes and uses KD more in the Iso game so as not to put too much strain on Booker’s legs.

Aaron Gordon, PF, Nuggets – UNDER 13.5 points

When push comes to shove, the underperforming scorers fall silent. While we love the overall impression Gordon had on this Nuggets team this year – and this was arguably AG’s best season as a pro – we still don’t like his points advantages against the likes of KD, Biyombo, Landale and even Torrey Craig. Gordon has nine, 11 and 10 points respectively in his last three games against Phoenix and we don’t see him suddenly hitting the 14-plus mark at the Footprint Center tonight. Follow the trends and convince yourself of Gordon’s UNDER.

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Kevin Durant, F, Suns – OVER 31.5 points or OVER 6 assists or OVER 9 rebounds

Kevin Durant 05032023

Make your choice! I like that KD is playing HAM tonight, losing 34 points, hitting double-digit rebounds and raking in eight cents. The world seems to be sleeping on the four-time top scorer, especially with Booker boasting such stunning scores. But let’s not forget that KD has averaged 33.8 points per game in Game 6 since 2012. Take a look at Durant’s performances in his last five post-season elimination games:

Date Match Points rebounds Supports
4.25.22 BRK vs BOSS 39 7 9
06/19/21 BRK vs. MIL 48 9 6
5.26.18 GSW vs LOVE 23 7 4
5.30.16 OKC@GSW 27 7 3
5.31.14 OKC vs. SAS 31 14 2
5.1.14 OKC@MEM 36 10 2
Average: 34.0 9.0 4.3

This chart suggests we’re primarily beating KD’s score, which will likely be the route I’ll take tonight. We also see that Durant has a track record of crashing the boards in eliminations and with Ayton out we want him to come out and play big tonight. With CP3 out and Booker potentially suffering from a leg injury, don’t be surprised to see KD upping his game as well, dumping over seven cents for the third time in four games.

Michael Porter Jr., F, Nuggets – OVER 0.5 steals

Michael Porter Jr

We’re attacking here as MPJ has recorded one steal in each of their last two contests and has had nine total steals in Denver’s ten postseason games. We predict a win for Phoenix tonight. So don’t be surprised if Porter Jr. and co. resort to traps and try to jump overtaking lanes to get back into the game. This narrative fits well with an MPJ OVER of 0.5 steals, which should serve as the icing on our player props cake.

Dave Gallo

Dave Gallo is a pioneering sports analytics expert, renowned for his revolutionary work in AI-driven sports simulations, projections, and advanced statistical analysis. With a profound passion for sports and technology, he crafts cutting-edge computer models that accurately predict outcomes. Dave's game-changing insights have reshaped strategy, player evaluation, and decision-making across various sports. His dynamic presentations make complex analytics accessible and inspiring, ensuring his legacy as a visionary in sports analytics. Check out Dave's Pick Record.

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