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Best NBA prop bets today: SuperDraft player prop picks for Game 6 of Lakers-Warriors

Clay Thompson
best nba prop bets today: superdraft player prop picks for

We could be in for an epic Friday night of postseason basketball when LeBron James and the seventh-seeded Lakers (-2.5) host Steph Curry and the defending champion Warriors for Game 6 of their semifinals at the Crypto.com Center (10 p.m. ET, ESPN). We have already given our final result prediction and best bets for this crucial competition. Now we’re serving up our favorite SuperDraft player props for a Friday night to remember.

If Los Angeles wins, it will be the first time in the Steve Kerr era that the Warriors have lost a best-of-seven playoff series to a Western Conference team. If Golden State wins, the Dubs would be struggling to become just 14th of 273 teams to win a series after falling 3-1 behind. Needless to say, this seems like a “must win” for both sides and a must watch for all basketball fans and bettors on TV.

Nobody really knows what to expect from today’s game from a betting perspective. As I wrote in our bet preview, it feels like LeBron’s unstoppable power is meeting Steph’s immovable target. Given that this is a tightly contested match, we actually feel more confident betting on a prop contest in SuperDraft than we do when we attack the money line or the spread tonight.

MORE NBA BETTING: LAL-GSW Preview | NYK MIA Preview | NYK-MIA props

In SuperDraft, bettors can select an over/under for two or more player props. If both props hit in a two-leg game, bettors win up to triple their stake. Each time another prop is added, the return increases. Think of it as a “same-game parlay.” More legs mean more risk, but also a bigger potential payoff. However, not all players have the same benefits. So keep that in mind as you pick your over/under games and try to win some money in today’s game.

MORE: Join SuperDraft now and enjoy a deposit bonus of up to $100! Enter promo code “TSN” during registration to get $10 free

SuperDraft Player Prop Picks for Lakers-Warriors Game 6

Klay Thompson, G/F, Warriors – OVER 22 points

“Game 6 Klay” has been an NBA legend since the 2016 Western Conference Finals, when the Warriors’ sniper knocked down Treys and scored 41 points in a comeback win over the Thunder 11. A whopping 19 of those 41 points came in the fourth quarter, which helped close an eight-point deficit and ultimately beat OKC by seven points.

We’re expecting the Game 6 Klay legend to continue tonight, with Thompson coming up strong after his poor offensive performance in Game 5 and making a great recovery. He finished Games 1 and 2 with 25 and 30 points, respectively, but only netted 11 field goals in Games 3, 4 and 5 combined. We don’t think those problems will extend to a fourth straight game given his Track record considering where he has had great success when the dubs are either 3-2 ahead or 3-2 behind.

Thompson’s three-point percentage in 14 career Game 6 competitions is 45.8, and his pointing average per game in the five Game 6 games at Golden State since Kevin Durant was injured in the 2019 NBA Finals against Toronto is at 24.0. Strong advice: don’t bet against the legend.

LeBron James, F, Lakers – OVER 9 rebounds

Lebron James

While Bron’s assist tally is well below his postseason career average, his rebounds are up significantly. The modern GOAT has netted more than nine times in eight of LA’s 11 games in the 2023 playoffs and hit double digits five times. With AD faltering thanks to a backhand from Kevon Looney in Game 5, it’s safe to assume that King James will rock the boards even more tonight. We’ve seen Jarred Vanderbilt, the Lakers’ best rebounder not named LeBron or AD, getting slightly fewer minutes with every passing play in this series (25-19-15-11-10), meaning LeBron has to catch up on one Body on Andrew Wiggins or Draymond Green while Davis fights with Kevon Looney or JaMychal Green. We’re pleased to see James easily master 10 boards in the deciding Game 6 tonight.

Steph Curry, PG, Warriors – OVER 32 points

Stephen Curry and LeBron James

While Game 6 Klay enjoys the storybook narrative of this particular competition, we also can’t overlook Curry’s flair for the dramatic in elimination matches. The all-time greatest shooter dropped a 50-pointer against the Kings in Game 7 of the opening round of the dub and amassed 34 points in Game 6 of the 2022 NBA Finals in Boston to cement Golden States’ fourth league championship of seven years. We don’t like that prop as much as Klay’s — Steph has only hit 33 twice this postseason — but the man has just hit 27 in Game 5 despite shooting 3-of-11 from three-point land has. We expect another long-range setback is on the horizon, adding another legacy game to the reigning Finals MVP’s glorious career.

MORE: Join SuperDraft now and enjoy a deposit bonus of up to $100! Enter promo code “TSN” during registration to get $10 free

Gary Payton II, G, Warriors – OVER 9.5 points

Gary Payton II and Steve Kerr

GP2 has been a cheat code for Steve Kerr and the Warriors ever since the head coach put him on the starting lineup before Game 4. Attacking the rim and scoring points on second chances helped Golden State’s offense tremendously. All in all, Payton had the best plus-minus ratio of Game 5, a whopping +25, so we don’t expect Kerr to change anything anytime soon. GP2 scored 15 points in Game 4 and 13 points in Game 5 so 10 in Game 6 should be a suspension.

D’Angelo Russell, PG, Lakers – OVER 15.5 points

D'Angelo Russell Lakers 2023

D’Lo has averaged 18.3 points per game in LA’s seven wins in this year’s NBA playoffs, but only 10.3 per game in the Lakers’ four losses. Expect Darvin Ham to get Russell going early and often, pressuring Curry and GP2 to stop him. James and AD have utmost confidence in D-Lo’s inside-outside scoring abilities. So don’t be surprised if the guard fires 13-20 shots tonight.

Written By

Dave Gallo is a pioneering sports analytics expert, renowned for his revolutionary work in AI-driven sports simulations, projections, and advanced statistical analysis. With a profound passion for sports and technology, he crafts cutting-edge computer models that accurately predict outcomes. Dave's game-changing insights have reshaped strategy, player evaluation, and decision-making across various sports. His dynamic presentations make complex analytics accessible and inspiring, ensuring his legacy as a visionary in sports analytics. Check out Dave's Pick Record.

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