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Bengals vs. Chiefs: Best Same Game Parlay picks and player props for AFC championship game

bengals vs. chiefs: best same game parlay picks and player
bengals vs. chiefs: best same game parlay picks and player

In a repeat of the 2022 AFC Championship, the top-ranked Chiefs once again host familiar opponent Joe Burrow and the third-ranked Bengals at 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS) on Sunday. We’ve covered this game in depth with a bet preview, DraftKings lineup, FanDuel lineup, and prop betting. Now we’re going to create a Same Game Parlay consisting of all of our favorite bets, game props, and player props for this epic conference title matchup.

Which of these AFC powerhouses will rise to the big dance? Recent history suggests that Burrow should be considered the one to beat, having led Cincinnati to the Super Bowl last season and beat the Chiefs three times in the last 13 months. However, Mahomes has put together one of the best campaigns of his NFL career this season, and we’ve seen him dominate in the past despite high ankle sprains.

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Both teams enjoy making the difference on each side of the ball and both QBs seem to play their best football when the pressure is at its highest. We can’t possibly blame you for staying away from this game from a traditional betting perspective, but a Same Game Parlay – or SGP – allows us to make a low-risk, high-reward parlay made up of interesting and valuable picking props.

Let’s unveil our favorite SGP and briefly explain why we chose each stage. Good luck and have fun!

MORE CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP: Odds, Lines, Spreads | Bill Bender’s best bets

Bengals-Chiefs Same Game Parlay: Best AFC Championship Game Props

Same Game Parlay compiled at Caesars Sportsbook.

player/team support opportunities
Bengal money line +100
Joe Burrow UNDER 37.5 pass attempts +100
Joe Mixon OVER 14.5 rushing attempts -106
Travis Kelce Anytime TD scorer -122
Tea Higgins UNDER 58.5 yards received +100

Total odds (5 legs): +1500 | Stake: $50 | Up for grabs: $750 | Payout: $800

Bengalis Money Line (+100)

As I pointed out in my article on this game’s rapidly changing spreads earlier this week, the Bengals are currently -110 moneylines on most sportsbooks and/or -1 on most spreads. Although Cincy started out as a street outsider, she flipped the betting switch while speculation about Mahome’s ankle coupled with the bettor’s affinity for Burrow and his ridiculous way of covering spreads flipped the switch. Joey Brr has helped the Bengals in 21 of their last 26 starts, an absurd 80-plus percent coverage rate in that span. But why bother with the +1 spread at -110 when we can get the direct money line profit at +100? This is a textbook example of why looks can deceive the casual bettor. To win a game, you need at least one point more than your opponent! Bet on the Bengals’ money line and you’ll benefit from their win much more than you would if you bet on their spread. Burrow and his litany of offensive weapons have given us no reason to turn our backs on them now.

NOTE: Some Caesars games didn’t allow us to include the money line. If that’s the case, just bet the +100 moneyline separately and play the 4-leg SGP at +1100.

Joe Burrow

MORE BENGALS CHIEFS:
Betting Preview | Best Props | DK Lineup | FD Lineup | Why is Cincy preferred?

Joe Burrow Total Pass Attempts UNDER 37.5 (+100)

It’s hard to imagine Burrow throwing the ball 38 or more times in this game. During Cincy’s 10-game winning streak, he attempted 37 passes or fewer six times. Burrow has also thrown 37 or fewer passes in five of Burrow’s six career playoff games, and the one time he surpassed that number was by just one pass. The Kansas City secondary has given up many big downfield games this season, and Zac Taylor will likely run the ball to chew the clock if the Bengals take the lead. Hit the UNDER here.

Joe-Mixon-110221-Getty-FTR

Joe Mixon Total Rushing Attempts OVER 14.5 (-106)

This fits right in with what we were just talking about with eating up the clock. Mixon looked great in Buffalo last week, rushing the ball 20 times for 105 yards and a TD. He averaged 16.8 carries in Cincinnati’s 2022 postseason run despite matchups against the Titans, Chiefs and of course the Rams. Chris Jones and KC’s front seven aren’t the easiest of teams, but the Bengals will still hammer Mixon early and often to hold Burrow’s pressure and open the field. That feels like great value.

Travis Kelce scores a TD (-122)

Granted, we’ve dabbled in every Kelce TD prop we can get our hands on. The All-Pro tight end has brought us a ton of cash since the start of the 2022 NFL season, and we can’t see ourselves retiring from it now. Even if Mahomes is disabled — or worse, Chad Henne has to come in and replace him — Kelce will eat like Ezekiel Elliott in a soup commercial. The man has the second-most total TDs this season (12) and comes off a career game in which he slammed Jacksonville for 14 catches, 98 yards and two TDs. He’s found the end zone in four straight postseason games and seven of the last eight. The question is not if he scores, but when.

Tee-Higgins-021322-GETTY-FTR

Tee Higgins UNDER 58.5 gains yards (+100)

That prop at +100 seems too good to be true. Higgins hasn’t surpassed 37 yards in a game since Week 12, the last game Ja’Marr Chase missed with a hip injury. Higgins’ regular-season average of 64.3 yards per game makes the -137 OVER look like a blast, but delve deeper and you’ll see that he averaged 55.6 yards per game when Chase was active , and 44.6 starting yards per game over the past six years. Plus odds for winning!

Written By

Dave Gallo is a pioneering sports analytics expert, renowned for his revolutionary work in AI-driven sports simulations, projections, and advanced statistical analysis. With a profound passion for sports and technology, he crafts cutting-edge computer models that accurately predict outcomes. Dave's game-changing insights have reshaped strategy, player evaluation, and decision-making across various sports. His dynamic presentations make complex analytics accessible and inspiring, ensuring his legacy as a visionary in sports analytics. Check out Dave's Pick Record.

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