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Aaron Rodgers trade rumors: Projecting the package of draft picks Jets would deal to Packers

aaron rodgers trade rumors: projecting the package of draft picks
aaron rodgers trade rumors: projecting the package of draft picks

A Packers quarterback is 39 years old, so it’s about time the Jets came into action.

Should Aaron Rodgers play in 2023, it seems inevitable it won’t be for the Packers. The reported frontrunners are the Jets, who seem confident they can secure the 2020 and 2021 MVP.

The big question is: how is a player like Rodgers rated? He signed a three-year, $150.8 million deal last year, he’s approaching 40 and there will be a constant threat of his retiring on every team he plays, which is the QB situation this one Teams will reset immediately.

That being said, his cap is a top-flight quarterback and he’s a year away from back-to-back MVP seasons. Although the luggage is heavy, he transports it in a vehicle that can handle it at the right price.

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When looking at Rodgers’ commercial value, here are some considerations to keep in mind.

The talent of Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers’ talent is unquestionable. Despite a poor year last season, he would join a Jets team that had rookie of the year Garrett Wilson, pre-injury rookie of the year nominee Breece Hall and Elijah Moore.

The Jets have more offensive talent than the Packers did last year, and despite Rodgers’ struggles, they were fed into a team that struggled as a whole. Rodgers completed 65 percent of his passes for 3,695 yards and 26 touchdowns. His interceptions were unusually high, with his 12 picks being the highest since 2008.

However, Rodgers would do better on a QB-needy team. It’s that simple. Maybe his time in Green Bay was just up. But quarterbacks of his caliber don’t become available often.

The age of Aaron Rodgers

At 39, Rodgers is pushing the age at which teams feel “comfortable” with quarterbacks.

Rodgers won’t fall off a cliff at 40. But the reality is that while not everything will shut down, different parts of players’ games will start at different times.

Rodgers has always had a degree of mobility and he’s excellent at moving the bag around. When that part of his game drops, it affects the way he plays. Ergo, teams don’t know if they’re trading for Rodgers or for a version of Rodgers that will see his game deteriorate.

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The quarterback will continue to read defenses and make incredible throws. But the Jets don’t want to be in a position where he can’t adapt his game to something in front of him. Drew Brees played just over 40, Brett Favre played to 41, Peyton Manning was 39. Only Tom Brady has successfully defied the time until his mid-40s. And that’s not even worth it…

Aaron Rodgers thoughts on retirement

If Aaron Rodgers wants to retire, that’s absolutely 100 percent his business. But don’t think it won’t weigh on any team that wants to trade for him.

Rodgers is on the verge of a three-year extension, which means any trade compensation must take into account a.) that length of time and b.) the money for his contract. The reality is the Packers don’t have much leverage over Rodgers’ deal. When the NFL legend ponders her retirement each offseason, it’s a circus that the team acting for him inherits.

In view of this, it harms any possible compensation. No matter how good Rodgers is, if the team trading for him only gets him for a year or maybe two, it will affect returns.

Rodgers has made it clear he doesn’t want to play until his body breaks down. So the questions about hanging the cleats will not stop after a possible trade.

MORE: Has Aaron Rodgers retired? Brandon Marshall stokes the fire and congratulates Packers QB with cryptic Instagram post

Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers contract

Alongside the retirement talks, Rodgers also has a hefty contract.

The collapse is, in a word, difficult.

Year Salary bonus Possibility cap hit dead money
2022 $1,150,000 $24,481,569 $28,533,569 $151,047,137
2023 $1,165,000 $12,981,568 $14,575,000 $31,623,568 $99,778,568
2024 $2,250,000 $8,160,000 $30,241,667 $40,701,667 $24,480,000
2025 $15,850,000 $8,160,000 $30,241,667 $59,301,667 $16,320,000
2026 $10,000,000 $8,160,000 $30,241,667 $53,451,667 $8,160,000

Nothing hurts Rodgers’ commercial value more than the contract, as it’s a lot to take on for a potential escape risk.

MORE: Aaron Rodgers trade tracker: Latest news, rumors about Jets, Raiders and more

Aaron Rodgers exchanges rumours

There are conflicting rumors about the potential return on a Rodgers trade.

According to Mike Garafolo, the Packers aren’t looking for an “offer we can’t refuse,” they’re looking for “the fairest possible compensation to just go ahead and turn this thing over to Jordan Love.”

Juicy nugget out @ Mike Garafolo who said that #Packer don’t ask for ‘an offer they can’t refuse’ #jets for QB Aaron Rodgers: “Let’s get as fair compensation as possible to just go ahead and turn this thing over to Jordan Love” ???? ???? @nflnetwork pic.twitter.com/8Mv47C2PeH

— Paul Andrew Esden Jr (@BoyGreen25) March 8, 2023

If the suitor is the Jets, No. 13 would be an offer the Packers can’t refuse. That means a selection on Day 1 is highly unlikely. According to Mike Lombardi on The Pat McAfee Show, the Packers are a little more ambitious than Garafolo is alluding to.

According to Lombardi, “The Packers are looking for a first-round pick and then potentially another pick if Aaron Rodgers plays again next season.”

“The Packers are looking for a first-round pick and then potentially another pick when Aaron Rodgers plays again next season.”@mlombardiNFL #PMSLive pic.twitter.com/dPLEy5OZ85

— Pat McAfee (@PatMcAfeeShow) March 9, 2023

It’s a given that the Packers are “looking” for it, but given everything we know, that’s unlikely.

Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer predicted a second all-rounder and a conditional pick in 2025 to avoid hampering the team acting for Rodgers if he doesn’t play in 2024.

Trade forecast by Aaron Rodgers

While it’s all conjecture right now, given all the reports surrounding Rodgers and the Packers’ willingness to remove him, it’s not crazy to think of one Second round selection and a conditional selection for 2024 get it done

The Jets want a new quarterback, but with knowledge of the contract they would be taking on, the player’s age and temperament, and an almost desperate willingness to make him available from the Packers, even a second-rounder could find it difficult to part ways . There’s a non-zero chance of Rodgers going for a third place finish, but a second is more likely for a player of his caliber.

Rodgers immediately raises the cap on the Jets, and he would be a boon to any team trading for him. This value does not mean that he is decreasing as a player. It’s just that trades aren’t as easy as talent alone.

The Packers will apparently need to move away from Rodgers this offseason, and that means Jordan Love will get the keys to the castle. We’ll see what the Packers do to build around him and try to get back in contention. The Jets, meanwhile, are hoping Rodgers will fix a quarterback issue that has consistently plagued the team if the deal goes through.

Written By

Dave Gallo is a pioneering sports analytics expert, renowned for his revolutionary work in AI-driven sports simulations, projections, and advanced statistical analysis. With a profound passion for sports and technology, he crafts cutting-edge computer models that accurately predict outcomes. Dave's game-changing insights have reshaped strategy, player evaluation, and decision-making across various sports. His dynamic presentations make complex analytics accessible and inspiring, ensuring his legacy as a visionary in sports analytics. Check out Dave's Pick Record.

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