NCAA Tournament bubble watch reveals that North Carolina and Indiana face an uphill battle as Selection Sunday approaches. The pressure mounts for teams on the edge of tournament eligibility, and while coaches claim their players remain focused, the reality is that players are acutely aware of their standings. One coach from a bubble team remarked, “Our guys aren’t hermits. They know what’s at stake here, and the madness is already underway for us.”
Now, let’s examine some winners and losers from the recent midweek games, their positions in Mike DeCourcy’s latest bracket forecast, and key teams to watch as the weekend approaches.
BYU (Currently in DeCourcy’s Last Four In)
The Cougars have improved their chances significantly after a stunning victory against Kansas. Despite Kansas’s 8-7 record in the Big 12, they were still positioned on the 4-line in the selection committee’s top 16 reveal. BYU didn’t just win; they overwhelmed the Jayhawks, winning 91-57. This 34-point loss marks one of the largest defeats in Bill Self’s coaching tenure, securing BYU a fourth Quad 1 victory. With a solid 3-1 record against Quad 2 teams, no bad losses, and a NET of 31, star player Richie Saunders and the Cougars are eyeing a potential tournament berth.
West Virginia (Currently in DeCourcy’s Last Four In)
The Mountaineers have had a rollercoaster season, yet their five Quad 1 victories, including wins over Iowa State and Arizona, are appealing to the selection committee. Currently, WVU holds a NET ranking of 44 and a KPI above teams like UConn and BYU. After narrowly defeating Cincinnati, they face a pivotal matchup against Texas Tech this Saturday. A win could solidify their standing and help them move off the bubble.
Arkansas (Currently in DeCourcy’s Last Four In)
Despite the committee’s disregard for conference records, Arkansas’s 4-9 SEC mark raises concerns. Their 3-9 record against Quad 1 teams, following a 67-60 loss to Auburn, is troubling. The Razorbacks, led by Adou Thiero and Johnell Davis, managed to challenge the top-ranked team but may not have enough to secure a tournament spot. They face Missouri, who recently scored 110 points against Alabama, in a crucial home game. A victory could shift their trajectory, but a loss would likely eliminate them from contention.
Wake Forest (Currently in DeCourcy’s Last Four In)
The Demon Deacons present an intriguing case with a KPI ranking of 35, reflecting their performance this season. With a NET of 58 and two Quad 1 wins, they are difficult to categorize. Coach Steve Forbes’s squad, featuring standout Hunter Sallis, who averages 18.5 points per game, must avoid any missteps in the weak ACC. They have critical games against North Carolina State, Virginia, and Notre Dame ahead, and winning all three is non-negotiable.
VCU (Currently in DeCourcy’s First Four Out)
VCU is struggling with a lack of significant victories, holding only one Quad 1 win and an equal number of Quad 4 losses. Their upcoming game against George Mason is critical, as it will determine their standing in the conference. With their best win being against Dayton and a disappointing loss to Seton Hall, the Rams need a strong finish to remain in the at-large conversation.
Georgia (Currently in DeCourcy’s First Four Out)
The Bulldogs have struggled recently, losing eight of their last ten games, with victories against non-tournament teams like LSU and South Carolina. Their next two games against Auburn and Florida are critical; one win is essential to avoid a dire 2-10 stretch that could end their hopes of a tournament appearance.
UC Irvine (Currently in DeCourcy’s First Four Out)
The Anteaters are vying for attention in the Big West but face an uphill battle for an at-large bid. With a tied conference record and a combined 41-8 on the season, their chances are slim. The selection committee typically avoids teams from leagues with many bottom quadrant wins, and UC Irvine’s one Quad 1 win alongside two Quad 3 losses does not bode well for their tournament aspirations.
SMU (Currently in DeCourcy’s First Four Out)
The Mustangs are performing well in NET and KPI rankings but lack any Quad 1 victories. Their upcoming home game against a ranked Clemson team is a must-win opportunity that could change their fortunes in the hunt for a tournament spot.
North Carolina (Currently in DeCourcy’s Next Four Out)
North Carolina faces a challenging path ahead, as their schedule presents several potential pitfalls. After a decisive win against North Carolina State, they must keep the momentum going against Virginia. Consistent victories over the next four games are necessary to set up a significant showdown against Duke on March 8.
Xavier (Currently in DeCourcy’s Next Four Out)
Xavier is in a precarious position, needing to capitalize on their remaining games. Although no Big East team has missed the NCAA Tournament with 21 regular-season wins since 2007, Xavier’s non-conference losses have put them in a tough spot. With only one Quad 1 win, they are hoping for UConn to improve its ranking for a potential second Quad 1 win. Their upcoming games against Seton Hall and Creighton are pivotal for their tournament prospects.
Indiana (Currently in DeCourcy’s Next Four Out)
The Hoosiers must improve their NET ranking of 57 and secure significant wins to remain in contention. Following a nine-day break, they will host Purdue, a team looking to rebound from losses. Indiana’s recent victory against Michigan State showcases their potential, but a win against Purdue is crucial for their tournament hopes. After this matchup, they face Penn State, Washington, Oregon, and Ohio State, and winning three of those would be beneficial.
