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Super Bowl 2025 best prop bets highlight Patrick Mahomes, who is expected to exceed 35.5 pass attempts when the Eagles clash with the Chiefs this Sunday on FOX. This matchup promises to be a thrilling showcase of talent.
Several intriguing prop bets have caught attention, focusing on key players who can shape the game’s outcome. Let’s take a closer look.
Patrick Mahomes Over 35.5 pass attempts
The Kansas City Chiefs faced challenges with their left tackle position throughout the regular season. They initially drafted Kingsley Suamataia for the role, but he was soon benched due to inexperience. Wanya Morris stepped in but struggled with injuries, leading to the Chiefs signing DJ Humphries, who also faced injury issues.
Despite improvements in pass protection, the Chiefs’ running game has taken a hit. Transitioning from two All-Pro linemen and a Pro-Bowl right guard to a backup left guard has proven difficult. Nevertheless, the Chiefs have adapted, utilizing creative strategies like short passes that function as extensions of the run game.
A significant mismatch in the game will be between Caliendo and Jordan Davis in the run game. This likely leads the Chiefs to adjust their game plan, shifting from a balanced 55% pass and 45% run to a more aggressive 75% pass and 25% run strategy. This shift favors Mahomes, who is adept at utilizing various pass plays that resemble run attempts.
Thus, backing Mahomes to go over his pass attempts seems like a solid bet.
Patrick Mahomes Over 251 passing yards
If Mahomes is projected to attempt at least 36 passes, it stands to reason he will accumulate over 252 yards. Although the Eagles’ defense is known for limiting explosive plays, Mahomes has a strategy that aligns well with their style. He typically throws deep on only 7% of his attempts, averaging just under 6.5 air yards per pass.
The Chiefs will likely focus on exploiting zone coverage, aiming for yards after the catch. Mahomes’ proficiency in short and intermediate passes should lead him to surpass the 251-yard mark, a feat he has achieved in three of the last four Super Bowls.
Travis Kelce Over 6.5 receptions
Travis Kelce’s postseason performance shines particularly in games following a bye week, making this matchup an excellent opportunity. Since 2020, he has consistently been targeted at least six times in such situations, catching the ball successfully every time. Coming off a game with only two receptions, he is poised to bounce back.
The Eagles’ zone defense, ranking among the highest in the league, plays to Kelce’s strengths. He excels at exploiting gaps in coverage, especially when Mahomes has time to survey the field. With the Eagles missing a starting linebacker, Kelce could find favorable matchups against Oren Burks.
Total punts Under 6.5
The Chiefs and Eagles are both known for their aggressive offensive strategies, making it unlikely that they will rely on punting. Once they cross the 50-yard line, both teams are inclined to attempt fourth-down conversions. The Eagles rank third in the NFL for fourth-down conversion rates, while the Chiefs are fourth, further supporting the expectation of fewer punts.
Saquon Barkley longest rush Under 25.5 yards
Barkley’s longest rush prop is inflated due to his recent postseason success, with typical numbers for starting running backs ranging between 17.5 and 19.5 yards. However, the Chiefs have proven adept at stopping rushers over the last two seasons, employing solid defensive schemes and effective tackling. Given this context, taking the under on Barkley’s longest rush seems prudent.
