NFL Divisional Round betting recap highlights a surprising twist: sportsbooks “haven’t been this happy since Brady retired.”
The Detroit Lions have become a favorite among betting enthusiasts, achieving an impressive record of 37-11 straight up (SU) and 35-11-1 against the spread over their last 47 games, dating back to November 2022.
In the current season, the Lions posted a remarkable 15-2 SU and led the league with a 12-4-1 ATS record. As they prepared for their playoff matchup against the Washington Commanders, public sentiment heavily favored Detroit, with many placing bets on the spread, moneyline parlays, and teasers.
What seemed like a guaranteed victory quickly turned into a shocker.
In a stunning upset, Washington, a 9-point underdog, defeated Detroit 45-31 on Saturday night, leaving recreational bettors disappointed and securing a significant win for the sportsbooks.
“As it turns out, when a 9-point underdog wins outright in the playoffs, it’s a very good thing for us. Our traders haven’t been this happy since Tom Brady retired,” said Joe Brennan Jr. from Prime Sportsbooks.
Across the nation, oddsmakers reflected on the weekend’s NFL divisional-round betting outcomes.
In Command
Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin teamed up for a 58-yard touchdown pass in the second quarter, giving the Commanders a 17-14 lead that they never relinquished. Washington maintained a lead of double digits at several points, dominating much of the fourth quarter.
This unexpected result shocked bettors and provided much-needed relief for bookmakers, who had faced consistent losses from favorites winning and moneyline parlays since October.
Chris Andrews, director at South Point sportsbook, noted, “Between teasers and moneyline parlays, many bettors viewed the Lions as a sure thing.”
Fouled-Up Futures
Christian Cipollini, a trading manager at BetMGM, stated, “This was the outcome we needed all season. We were hoping the Lions would lose before the Super Bowl to eliminate our liability.” The defeat was significant, as it disrupted numerous favorite moneyline parlays involving teams like the Chiefs, Lions, Eagles, and Ohio State.
Among the notable bets placed at BetMGM was a $20,000 wager on the Lions at +1200 to win the Super Bowl, which would have paid out $360,000 had Detroit triumphed.
BetMGM Nevada mirrored the national market, with sportsbooks along the Las Vegas Strip celebrating Detroit’s exit from the playoffs.
Scott Shelton from BetMGM Nevada remarked, “It’s a huge relief to remove Lions liability from our futures book. They were the biggest loser for us regarding Super Bowl futures.”
Every ‘Dog Has Its Day
For those tracking the weekend’s results, underdogs finished 2-2 SU but went 4-0 ATS. The Houston Texans fell to the Kansas City Chiefs 23-14 but managed to cover the spread as a 9.5-point underdog.
The Texans’ covering came in an unusual fashion. With just 15 seconds left in the game, the Chiefs led 23-12 but faced a fourth-and-15 at their own 18-yard line. Instead of risking a blocked punt, Chiefs punter Matt Araiza took the snap and ran into the end zone, intentionally conceding a safety to make the score 23-14.
In a similar vein, the Commanders also achieved an outright victory as 9-point underdogs.
On Sunday, the Los Angeles Rams made a valiant comeback from a 28-15 deficit against the Philadelphia Eagles but fell short, turning the ball over on downs with just 31 seconds remaining. Despite the loss, the Rams covered as 7-point underdogs.
DraftKings Sportsbook, like others, welcomed the Commanders’ win. On Sunday, they received favorable outcomes in both games. Julian Edlow from DraftKings shared insights from the risk room, stating, “From both a game and futures perspective, the book is rooting for Philadelphia and Buffalo.”
A Numbers Game
While bookmakers generally fared well this weekend, the way some final scores unfolded proved advantageous for many point-spread bettors. The Chiefs’ 9-point victory meant that those who bet on Houston +9.5 and those who wagered on Kansas City -8/-8.5 were both paid out.
However, the line had been at Chiefs -9 for a considerable portion of Saturday. Most betting activity typically occurs on game day, resulting in any bettor who took either Chiefs -9 or Texans +9 receiving a push and a refund.
The 9-point margin came about due to the intentional safety.
Similarly, the Eagles’ 28-22 victory, a 6-point margin, did not favor sportsbooks. Bettors who took the Rams at +6.5/+7 won, while those who bet on the Eagles at -6 or the Rams at +6 received a refund.
“The Eagles game was not what we wanted. That game landing on 6 a day after the Chiefs landed on 9 had us shaking our heads,” remarked Murray from The SuperBook. “Plus, the total went Over. What can you do? Not what we wanted to see.”
The situation also impacted teasers: 6-point teasers either way—taking Philadelphia from -6 down to pick ‘em or Los Angeles from +6 to +12—were all winners.
Brennan from Prime Sportsbook added, “Buffalo’s win was decent for us, but it didn’t do much to help us recover from the hole we were in after the Philly game landed on 6, especially since we’re paying both sides of teasers.”
