Who Can Exploit the Dodgers’ Weakness? Yankees or Astros? Plus, the Hottest Pitcher Trade Rumors!

The hot stove remains ablaze even during the holidays.

Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, and Max Fried have all secured contracts that caught many by surprise. The pressing questions now are: which team struck the best deal among this trio? Which American League contender is having the most successful offseason? And where will Pete Alonso and Alex Bregman land, along with the financial terms of their contracts?

1. Which of the big three pitcher contracts do you like best from the respective teams’ perspective?

Thosar: Perhaps it’s the surprise factor, but the agreement the Arizona Diamondbacks reached with Corbin Burnes stands out. Despite not being linked to him throughout the offseason, Burnes’ residency in Arizona positioned the organization as a prime candidate for his services. They capitalized on this opportunity to secure the top free agent starting pitcher left on the market. The D-backs already possess a robust rotation featuring Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Brandon Pfaadt, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Jordan Montgomery, which will alleviate the pressure on Burnes to shoulder the entire pitching staff.

The NL West, often regarded as baseball’s toughest division thanks to the dominance of the Los Angeles Dodgers, necessitated the acquisition of a talent like Burnes (who boasts a 2.94 ERA since 2021) for the D-backs to be considered serious contenders. As for the financials, the six-year, $210 million deal aligns with expectations, as Burnes was anticipated to command at least $35 million annually on a long-term contract, making the D-backs’ ability to deliver commendable.

Kavner: Blake Snell’s deal with the Dodgers resonates more with me. I was surprised to see Max Fried secure the largest contract (in both duration and total value) of any pitcher this offseason. Offering eight years to a 30-year-old with recent forearm issues would have given me pause, so it boils down to Snell and Burnes. While I applaud the D-backs for adding an ace to their rotation, I prefer Snell’s five-year, $182 million contract with the Dodgers over Burnes’ six-year, $210 million deal for several reasons.

To start, Burnes has the option to opt out after two years. Additionally, the deferred payments in Snell’s contract lower his average annual value by about $3-4 million less per season than Burnes. Moreover, the Dodgers have a conditional club option on Snell’s contract for a sixth season at just $10 million, providing protection should he face a serious injury during his time in Los Angeles. While Burnes is the more reliable workhorse, Snell’s potential is higher. His ability to stabilize a Dodgers rotation plagued by injury concerns and his swing-and-miss capabilities make him a game-changer in October.

The New York Yankees are attempting to recover from the losses of Juan Soto, Nestor Cortes, and Clay Holmes. While the additions of Cody Bellinger and Paul Goldschmidt don’t fully alleviate concerns about their offense without Soto, the pitching upgrades provide a competitive edge.

Thosar: Both the Yankees and Astros have lost star players this offseason, but the Yankees have responded more effectively to the departure of Juan Soto compared to the Astros’ strategy after trading Kyle Tucker to the Cubs and likely letting Alex Bregman walk in free agency. Following Soto’s exit to Queens, the Yankees acquired Max Fried, Devin Williams, Cody Bellinger, and Paul Goldschmidt. Although the risk involved with these contracts is debatable, the sheer number of star players added gives the Yankees an edge over Houston in this offseason.

The Astros’ major move was signing first baseman Christian Walker, a necessity given their poor offensive output at the corner infield position in 2024. Jim Crane’s financial constraints in free agency often come into play, as he has set a limit on payroll to achieve success. Ultimately, both teams are weaker without their star players, but the Yankees’ proactive approach to enhance their roster earns them a more favorable offseason assessment.

3. What’s been your favorite short-term deal thus far?

Thosar: While it may not be the most glamorous choice, the Detroit Tigers’ agreement with Gleyber Torres stands out for its mutual benefits. Detroit is investing just $15 million in a one-year deal, which aligns with Torres’ expected market value after a disappointing season with the Yankees, where he recorded his lowest career OPS (.709). The Tigers have the chance to address Torres’ defensive challenges at second base within a young roster that exceeded expectations last season.

For Torres, this is a pivotal opportunity to prove himself and enhance his market value before hitting free agency again next winter, when he will still be only 29 years old. He has always seemed poised to thrive outside the intense New York spotlight, and now he has the chance to regain his form and improve his slugging—his peak was an impressive 38 home runs in the 2019 season. This deal is favorable for both parties in an era where overpayments are common.

Kavner: Among Gleyber Torres, Shane Bieber, or Walker Buehler, I lean towards Torres’ one-year, $15 million deal with the Tigers. This was not the farewell season he had hoped for in New York, but if he performs to his potential in Detroit, this could be the steal of the offseason.

While the Tigers may have initially sought to enhance their corner infield, they desperately needed another right-handed bat to balance their lineup. Torres, who was a league-average hitter last year with the Yankees, is a 28-year-old two-time All-Star who now has the motivation to re-establish his value in a less pressurized environment. He may not fully reach the heights expected of him after hitting 38 home runs at 22, but for only $15 million, this low-risk gamble could yield significant returns for Detroit.

4. What are your best guesses for the teams and terms for Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso?

Kavner: I am not overly confident that either player will exceed the $200 million mark, although Bregman has a stronger chance. At 30 years old, he remains an exceptional defender with the ability to hit over 20 home runs and demonstrate elite plate discipline. With a reunion in Houston seeming unlikely, various teams should show interest. The Tigers appear to be the best fit, but I doubt their highest offer will be sufficient. Therefore, I predict the Toronto Blue Jays, looking to rebound from their disappointing 2024 season, will pursue Bregman aggressively, offering seven years and $196 million.

As for Alonso, I don’t expect a similarly robust market due to his defensive limitations and concerning offensive trends aside from his impressive power. With the Astros and Yankees addressing their first base needs through free agency, it seems to come down to the Mets and Giants for Alonso, with a return to Queens likely. I envision a creative contract, possibly six years for $156 million.

Thosar: I have always anticipated Alonso returning to the Mets, and my stance remains unchanged. The Mets are acutely aware of Alonso’s critical role in their 2024 playoff journey—despite a lackluster regular season, his late-game heroics propelled the team to the NLCS. Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns can attempt to set sentiment aside, but the emotional connection to Alonso may compel Steve Cohen to secure a deal around $130 million for five years.

5. Would signing Rōki Sasaki cap off an ideal offseason for the Dodgers? Do you have any real concerns with their roster?

Thosar: The Dodgers signing Sasaki would indeed round out a stellar offseason. They have already addressed several roster needs by acquiring high-profile free agents like Blake Snell and Teoscar Hernandez, signaling their intent to defend their championship title. Bringing in Sasaki through a unique free agency process, along with another Japanese pitcher, would reinforce their status as the premier destination for international talent.

Kavner: It would mark an extraordinary offseason. Even without Sasaki, the Dodgers’ rotation, which includes Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Shohei Ohtani, might already be the best in baseball. Adding Sasaki, and eventually free agent Clayton Kershaw, could establish them as the most formidable pitching staff in the league.

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