Now is the time for the Falcons to bench Kirk Cousins and start rookie Michael Penix Jr.
The 36-year-old quarterback, who joined the team with great expectations under a $180 million free-agent deal, has faced a challenging month, throwing eight interceptions and failing to score a touchdown during the Falcons’ four-game losing streak.
Once enjoying a three-game lead in the NFC South and a promising chance to end a six-year playoff drought, Atlanta now finds itself struggling. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have won three straight games, have taken control of the division, leaving the Falcons, who were once the favorites, in a precarious position.
With rookie Michael Penix Jr. waiting in the wings after being selected as the No. 8 overall pick, patience for Cousins is wearing thin. The Falcons have created an environment ripe for controversy if Cousins continues to falter, especially given the financial commitment made to him.
“Kirk Cousins is our quarterback,” asserted coach Raheem Morris after the recent loss. “We’ll review the tape like we do every week. Kirk played better than he did the week before. … Our goal is to win football games, and Kirk is certainly part of that.”
Cousins has acknowledged his struggles, taking responsibility for his performance while expressing optimism about turning things around in the remaining games of the season.
Is the team committed to treating this season as a redshirt year for Penix? Despite limited practice reps, a top-10 draft pick is expected to handle the pressure. If Cousins were to face an injury, the Falcons would likely trust Penix to step in, raising the question of why he shouldn’t be considered now as a viable option during Cousins’ ongoing struggles.
The timing for a quarterback change appears favorable. The Falcons will face the Raiders, who currently hold the worst record in the NFL and rank 29th in scoring defense. Following that matchup, they will host the struggling Giants, who also have a poor record and a weak pass defense. This sequence of games presents an opportunity for Penix to showcase his skills against manageable opponents.
Just five weeks ago, the New York Times playoff simulator gave the Falcons a 96% chance of making the playoffs. That figure has since plummeted to 37%, with a potential loss against the Raiders dropping their playoff odds to 17%. The franchise is facing a critical moment with little room for error.
The Falcons have positioned their investments in two quarterbacks as both a present and future strategy, yet the question of when to shift from one to the other looms large. While the hope is not to have this discussion in 2024, the urgency to return to the playoffs begs the question: Why not make the change now?
If Penix can lead the Falcons to victory against the Raiders, Giants, and Panthers—teams with a combined record of 7-32—Atlanta’s playoff chances could rise to 48%, according to the New York Times’ calculations.
Handing the reins to Penix may come sooner than desired, but Cousins’ recent performance has made this a pressing consideration. If the Falcons remain loyal to the veteran and fail to reach the playoffs, they may find themselves looking for a new direction in the offseason, with a narrative focused on disappointment rather than potential.
Penix remains an untested variable, having thrown just five passes this season in limited appearances. Even during the preseason, he had one outing with 16 passes for 104 yards, without any touchdowns or interceptions. Nonetheless, with Cousins struggling, the question arises: Is the uncertainty of a rookie better than the known struggles of a veteran quarterback?
Greg Auman is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He previously spent a decade covering the Buccaneers for the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.
