2024 College Football picks Week 13 suggest backing Michigan to cover the spread while fading Oregon State directly. This weekend, fans are buzzing about the recently unveiled College Football Playoff bracket, and many are eager to place bets on the elite teams that dominate the headlines.
This enthusiasm for high-ranking teams is completely understandable.
However, a different strategy can yield great rewards.
Instead of focusing solely on playoff contenders, there are intriguing matchups featuring teams that are off the playoff radar—except for possibly one.
Value can be found throughout the betting landscape, not just among the frontrunners.
Let’s explore the best bets for college football Week 13.
(All times ET)
SATURDAY, NOV. 23
No. 16 Colorado @ Kansas (3:30 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports app)
This week, the recommendation is to bet on Colorado’s team total to exceed 30.5 points.
The Buffaloes have been an offensive powerhouse this season, spearheaded by Shedeur Sanders, a potential No. 1 draft pick, and an impressive roster of wide receivers, including Heisman candidate Travis Hunter. Colorado has scored more than 34 points in nearly every conference game except one, which was against Kansas State—the strongest opponent they faced in their conference.
To disrupt Sanders, a solid pass rush is necessary, but Kansas lacks this capability. The Jayhawks rank 91st in pass rush efficiency, and their pressure rate sits at 74th, leading to numerous explosive passing plays. If the game turns into a high-scoring affair—which is a viable path for Kansas—Colorado is poised to rack up significant points.
Expect Colorado to surpass 30.5 points.
Northwestern @ Michigan (3:30 p.m., FS1)
The betting line for Michigan seems somewhat undervalued, presenting an opportunity to capitalize.
While the Wolverines may not be at their peak this season, they are far from a weak team. The spread of Michigan -10.5 implies otherwise.
Michigan has faced tough competition, losing to teams like Texas, Oregon, and Indiana, along with two road losses against Illinois and Washington—all of which are bowl-bound teams, with three being playoff contenders. Conversely, Northwestern stands at 4-6, with losses to teams of similar caliber to Michigan.
A trend worth noting this season is the effectiveness of teams coming off a bye week.
Michigan, despite its offensive struggles, has had two weeks to prepare following a competitive loss to Indiana. Their determination remains evident, even if their record does not reflect their efforts.
Northwestern’s defense, while not the worst, will likely struggle to contain Michigan’s strong rushing attack throughout the entire game. The Wildcats rank last nationally in average third down distance for opposing offenses, allowing Michigan ample opportunities to run the ball effectively.
Additionally, Northwestern’s offense has been lackluster, which favors Michigan’s defense. The Wildcats rank 129th in points per drive and experience three-and-outs on nearly a third of their drives. Despite injuries, Michigan’s defense remains competent.
Northwestern may struggle to reach double digits in this matchup. Expect Michigan to cover the spread.
Washington State @ Oregon State (7 p.m., CW Network)
Washington State’s impressive season faced a setback with an unexpected loss to New Mexico last weekend. However, the Cougars are expected to rebound against Oregon State.
Oregon State began the season strong, with a 4-1 record, including a victory over Colorado State, a potential contender in the Mountain West Championship. However, they have since lost five consecutive games, with each defeat becoming increasingly severe, culminating in a 28-0 loss to Air Force last weekend.
The Beavers are grappling with quarterback injuries, issues in the running back position, and only one reliable receiver. They have managed just four passing touchdowns this season.
On the defensive side, Oregon State struggles as well, ranking poorly in points allowed per drive, EPA against the pass, and third down efficiency. This does not bode well against a Washington State offense that excels, ranking 10th in points per drive and consistently generating explosive plays.
While Washington State’s defense has its flaws, Oregon State’s current struggles make it unlikely they can capitalize. The Beavers have a decent offensive line and running game but have failed to convert drives into touchdowns.
In their last three games, Oregon State scored only seven points against Cal, 13 against San Jose State, and none against Air Force—teams that are not known for their defensive prowess.
Expect a strong performance from the Cougars in this matchup.
