2024 College Football picks Week 11: Back Oregon to start fast, Iowa to cover. Betting enthusiasts will find ample opportunities this week as the action heats up across the nation.
This week’s analysis extends beyond the familiar confines of Eugene, as attention shifts toward Colorado and an Iowa team that is showing surprising offensive prowess.
Let’s explore the best bets for this week’s matchups!
(All times ET)
Saturday, Nov. 9
No. 20 Colorado @ Texas Tech (4 p.m, FOX and FOX Sports app)
Colorado’s offense has proven to be a formidable force, especially against teams like Texas Tech.
Whether at home or on the road, the Buffaloes consistently excel against defenses that struggle to pressure the quarterback or adequately cover their talented receivers. Despite a recent road victory against Iowa State, Texas Tech’s defense lacks the necessary tools to contain Colorado’s offensive threats.
Currently, Texas Tech ranks 107th in defensive points allowed per drive, 127th in pressure rate, and 115th in havoc rate, indicating a defensive unit that seldom forces mistakes. Recent games saw them concede 35 points to TCU and a staggering 59 to Baylor.
On the other hand, Colorado’s passing game is exceptional. With Shedeur Sanders at the helm and Travis Hunter as a standout receiver, the Buffaloes boast multiple targets who are challenging to defend. The primary four receivers average over 12.6 yards per catch, making them a constant threat.
In recent outings, Colorado scored 34 points against Cincinnati, matched that against Arizona, and put up 48 against UCF, a team with similar metrics to Texas Tech.
The prediction here is to take Colorado’s team total Over 33.5.
Maryland @ No. 1 Oregon (7 p.m., BTN)
Oregon stands as the premier team in college football this season.
The Ducks exhibit minimal weaknesses and typically dictate the pace of their games. They excel at building early leads, averaging just under 24 points in the first half, ranking third nationally. Their defense is equally impressive, allowing fewer than 10 points per game in the first half, while they average only 3.8 points in the third quarter. When leading by substantial margins at halftime, they often play conservatively.
With this in mind, a wager on Oregon to cover the first half against Maryland seems prudent.
Although Maryland comes off a bye week, their struggles in the run game and lack of explosive plays may hinder their chances on the road.
Maryland’s defense ranks 77th in points allowed per drive, and their offensive line is vulnerable, allowing significant pressure and ranking 81st in havoc rate. This matchup does not favor a fast-starting Oregon team.
Thus, a bet on Oregon -14.5 for the first half is recommended.
Iowa @ UCLA (9 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports app)
Iowa’s offense is making waves in 2024.
Currently ranked 45th in points per game and 28th in rushing yards, Kaleb Johnson leads with an impressive 7.52 rushing yards per attempt, amassing nearly 1,300 yards in just eight games.
Despite a slight dip in defensive performance, Iowa still ranks 10th in points allowed per drive and excels at limiting explosive plays.
UCLA’s offense struggled early in the season but has recently shown improvement, scoring 35 points against Rutgers and 27 against Nebraska. However, quarterback Ethan Garbers leads a one-dimensional attack that is unlikely to succeed against Iowa’s strong defense.
UCLA ranks last in rushing success rate and has difficulty converting on third downs. Their defense can limit big plays but has faced weaker opponents, making Iowa a tougher challenge.
The coaching matchup favors Iowa, especially with UCLA’s first-year head coach Deshaun Watson facing a short week for the first time. Iowa’s disciplined play is evident, ranking fourth in penalties per game, while UCLA sits at 121st.
The recommendation here is to back Iowa to win and cover.
