The Indianapolis Colts will face off against the Minnesota Vikings this Sunday at U.S. Bank Stadium, with the action starting at 8:20 p.m. ET for Sunday Night Football.
The Vikings are currently favored by 5.5 points, with an over/under set at 46.5 points.
Indianapolis holds a record of 4-4 straight up (SU), 7-1 against the spread (ATS), and 3-5 on the over/under (O/U). They narrowly lost to the Houston Texans 23-20 last week but managed to secure four wins in their previous five games.
Meanwhile, Minnesota’s record stands at 5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS, and 3-4 O/U. They faced a setback against the Los Angeles Rams, losing 30-20 on October 24, marking their second consecutive defeat after an undefeated start.
Insights from Analyst: Mike Briggs
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Who will take home the win in this exciting matchup? Discover more about the Indianapolis Colts vs. Minnesota Vikings prediction!
Colts Revert to Flacco Under Center
After a close contest against the Texans, the Colts are making significant changes. Quarterback Anthony Richardson struggled in his return from injury, completing just 10 of 32 pass attempts for 175 yards and a touchdown. Controversy arose over his decision to exit the game before a field goal attempt in the third quarter, leading to his benching this week against Minnesota.
“We’ve just got to keep working through it,” said Indianapolis coach Shane Steichen. “He’s got a good work ethic. It’s a process, and we’re in it together. This ain’t about one guy — it’s about the team. It’s always about the team.”
Former Super Bowl MVP Joe Flacco will take over as the starting quarterback on Sunday. So far this season, he has completed 65.7 percent of his passes, accumulating 716 yards, seven touchdowns, and one interception. His primary targets include Alec Pierce (16 receptions for 394 yards and three touchdowns) and Michael Pittman Jr. (29 receptions for 352 yards and two touchdowns). In the running game, Jonathan Taylor leads with 92 carries for 454 yards and five touchdowns.
The Colts average 21.9 points per game (ranked 19th) and gain 326.0 total yards (17th), with 198.0 passing yards (21st) and 128.0 rushing yards (11th). They’ve allowed 15 sacks (25th) and committed 11 turnovers (27th). Indianapolis converts 37.6 percent of its third downs (20th) and scores touchdowns on 53.8 percent of red zone trips (19th).
On the defensive side, they allow 21.5 points (13th) and 379.6 total yards (28th) per game, with 227.7 passing yards (24th) and 151.9 rushing yards (30th). The Colts have recorded 16 sacks (21st) and forced 12 turnovers (5th). Opponents convert 42.9 percent of their third-down attempts (24th) and score on 57.1 percent of red zone trips (15th).
Colts Injury Report: Defensive end Kwity Paye (hamstring), wide receivers Josh Downs (toe) and Michael Pittman Jr. (back), offensive tackle Bernhard Raimann (concussion), center Ryan Kelly (calf), offensive tackle Braden Smith (knee), and guard Tanor Bortolini (toe) are all questionable against Minnesota.
Vikings Aim for a Strong Comeback
Last week, Minnesota suffered a defeat on the road against the Los Angeles Rams, getting outgained 386 to 276 yards. The Vikings struggled in the ground game, managing only 64 rushing yards and losing the time of possession battle. Their defense had a tough time containing quarterback Matthew Stafford and wide receiver Puka Nacua.
“I think we were close on some plays,” said Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell. “But against a quarterback like that, with receivers getting healthy and making big plays, it comes down to whether we can get enough pressure and coverage working together.”
Quarterback Sam Darnold leads Minnesota’s offense, completing 67.2 percent of his passes for 1,610 yards, 14 touchdowns, and five interceptions. Key receiving options include Justin Jefferson (41 receptions for 646 yards and five touchdowns), Jordan Addison (14 receptions for 231 yards and one touchdown), and Jalen Nailor (14 receptions for 229 yards and three touchdowns). Running back Aaron Jones has been the focal point of the rushing attack with 104 carries for 501 yards and two touchdowns.
The Vikings average 26.9 points (7th) and gain 325.0 total yards (19th), consisting of 213.6 passing yards (17th) and 111.4 rushing yards (22nd). They allow 22 sacks (25th) and have committed ten turnovers (26th). Minnesota converts 39.4 percent of their third downs (13th) and scores touchdowns on 65.0 percent of red zone trips (8th).
On defense, the Vikings yield 19.6 points (9th) and 346.9 total yards (18th) per game, with 263.0 passing yards (29th) and 83.9 rushing yards (3rd). Minnesota has achieved 24 sacks (4th) and forced 15 turnovers (2nd). Opponents convert 32.9 percent of their third downs (9th) and find the end zone on 61.9 percent of red zone trips (24th).
Vikings Injury Report: Tight end T.J. Hockenson (knee) is probable, while offensive tackle David Quessenberry (knee) and linebacker Blake Cashman (toe) are questionable. Offensive tackle Christian Darrisaw (knee) is out against Indianapolis.
For reliable football predictions, check out our NFL Predictions.
Top Betting Insights for Colts vs. Vikings
This matchup will showcase two veteran quarterbacks making notable returns: Joe Flacco and Sam Darnold. Flacco has shown stronger performance metrics in Indianapolis, ranking seventh in expected points added plus completion percentage over expected, while Darnold’s impressive play has fans in Minnesota feeling optimistic about their season.
The spread sits at 5.5, making it a tricky decision. However, leaning towards Minnesota feels like the right choice.
Under defensive coordinator Brian Flores, the Vikings are known for their aggressive blitzing, which could expose Flacco’s lack of mobility. This season, he averages just 4.4 yards per attempt with a 55.2 percent adjusted completion rate when facing blitzes, ranking near the bottom of qualifying quarterbacks. Minnesota leads the league in extra pass rushers sent on over 41 percent of opponent dropbacks, resulting in the highest number of QB hurries and hits.
Moreover, Minnesota’s defense is effective against the run, ranking first in expected points allowed per carry and second in opponent success rate. While Taylor is a talented back, the Vikings’ defense may limit his effectiveness and force the Colts into more challenging third-down situations. This could lead to more field goals than touchdowns for Indianapolis.
On the offensive end, Minnesota is poised to score frequently. Coming off a mini-bye, they are likely to establish an early lead, capitalizing on the Colts’ defensive weaknesses while leveraging their own strong passing game, especially with Hockenson’s expected return.
