2024 NFL Week 2 action reports indicate that the bookies are leaning heavily on the underdog Bills, following a substantial wager on the Dolphins.
The outcome of this major bet will likely be determined by the conclusion of the Thursday night game.
Joey Feazel, the head of football trading at Caesars Sports, reported, “We took a larger sharp bet on the Dolphins on Sunday night: $110,000 on Dolphins -1.5.”
This significant wager suggests that Caesars Sports may find themselves rooting for the road underdog Bills in the upcoming matchup.
No Mostert, No Problem?
The line opened at Dolphins -1.5, but after that hefty wager, it quickly shifted to -2 on Sunday night. Since early Wednesday morning, the line has remained stable at Miami -2.5.
This stability comes despite the announcement on Wednesday morning that Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert (chest) will not participate in the Thursday night game.
Feazel commented, “I think the Mostert news was surprising to us,” adding that the line’s persistence at Miami -2.5 relates to the Bills’ defensive struggles against Arizona.
In their Week 1 performance, the Bills allowed the Cardinals to jump to a 17-3 lead. Although Buffalo managed to secure a 34-28 victory, they failed to cover as 6.5-point favorites.
Feazel expressed hope that Buffalo’s defense would perform better against Miami.
“With that big bet, we’ll need the Bills. However, public sentiment seems to favor the Bills, while the sharp money is on the Dolphins,” he stated.
NFL Rocks On FOX
During the 1 p.m. ET window on Sunday, FOX will showcase a thrilling matchup between last season’s playoff contenders. This game features a rematch of an NFC Divisional Round showdown, with the Detroit Lions hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Lions opened at -6.5 (-115) early Monday at Caesars, moved to -7 by Monday afternoon, and reached -7.5 by Wednesday night. Meanwhile, the total has seen significant movement, starting at 49 and fluctuating to 51.5 before settling at 51.
NFL Sharp Side
Professional bettor Randy McKay is focusing on three matchups this week, all of which are high-profile games, beginning with the Thursday night contest.
“I’m taking Miami -2. Home teams have a strong record on Thursday nights. Miami is poised to exploit a Buffalo defense that is missing key players from last year,” McKay remarked.
McKay also has thoughts on what could be the game of the week: the Cincinnati Bengals versus the Kansas City Chiefs at 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday.
“I played Cincy +6, and now it’s Cincy +5.5. I believe it will likely rebound,” McKay noted. “Cincy has a favorable matchup against K.C., and the Bengals are looking to bounce back after a disappointing loss to New England. Week 2 often leads to overreactions, and this is certainly one of them.”
Additionally, McKay is placing his faith in rookie quarterback Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears, who will face the Houston Texans in the Sunday night game.
“I took Chicago +7. It’s currently at 6, so I advise waiting until closer to kickoff for it to potentially rise again,” McKay suggested. “This line also appears to be an overreaction, particularly with a Houston team that is expected to be a betting favorite throughout the season.”
NFL Quick Hitters
With Jordan Love likely sidelined this week and Malik Willis taking the helm for Green Bay, the Colts are favored at -3, having briefly reached -3.5 earlier in the week.
Some betting experts speculated that Green Bay could have been a 6-point favorite had Love (knee) been healthy. However, Feazel disagrees with that assessment.
“There’s no way Love is worth nine points. We assessed him at six points, factoring in Malik Willis being in the mix,” he explained. “The market appears to be overreacting, with public bettors leaning towards Colts +3 and the Under. It’s unlikely we see Colts -3.5 again.”
- Bengals vs Chiefs: “The Chiefs looked impressive against the Ravens. The Bengals’ loss to the Patriots was a surprising upset in Week 1. Survivor pools everywhere are feeling the impact,” Feazel noted, addressing the betting landscape for Sunday’s game. “Sharp money is pushing back as we approach 7. We’re seeing increased interest in the Bengals at +6.” K.C. was at -5.5 late on Wednesday at Caesars.
- Saints vs. Cowboys: This matchup is another early Sunday game on FOX at 1 p.m. ET. Dallas opened at -6.5, briefly touching -7 on Sunday night, but dropped to -6 by Wednesday night. “We encountered sharp pushback at 7, favoring the Lions. Currently, most bettors are either backing the Cowboys to cover or betting on the Saints to win outright. Our ideal outcome would be a Cowboys win paired with a Saints cover, while we’ll also be rooting for the Under,” he added.
I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
The previously mentioned $110,000 wager on Dolphins -1.5 stands as the largest reported bet this week. While not much else has emerged, large bets typically materialize as the weekend approaches.
However, a couple of noteworthy wagers include:
- $25,000 on Cowboys +1700 to win the Super Bowl. If Dallas secures the championship, this Caesars Sports customer stands to gain $425,000 ($450,000 total payout).
- $22,000 on Giants +2.5 against the Commanders in Week 2 at South Point sportsbook. This bettor will earn $20,000 ($42,000 total) if New York covers on the road against Washington.
An impressive parlay win from Week 1, highlighted by a Deebo Samuel touchdown in the San Francisco 49ers’ 32-19 victory over the New York Jets on Monday night, turned a $60 bet into an astonishing $18,561.90.
However, bettors should remember that parlays are often the bookmakers’ best ally. It’s wise to treat these types of wagers like lottery tickets.
