2024 NFL Week 10 betting recap reveals that bookmakers found themselves in a favorable position.
Several underdogs managed to cover the spread, allowing sportsbooks to recoup some losses after a tough few weeks where the betting public had the upper hand.
The potential for a significant win for the sportsbooks was almost realized, hinging on a Denver Broncos loss due to a blocked field goal and a narrow defeat for the Washington Commanders by just one point.
The Houston Texans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Jacksonville Jaguars also faced disappointing outcomes in games they could have won.
Joe Brennan Jr., executive chair at Prime Sportsbook, reflected on the day, saying, “We were knocking on the door of an NFL Sunday for the ages. We were in sight of Xanadu. But this league is a fickle mistress.”
Ultimately, Prime and other sportsbooks settled for a solid Sunday, despite the near-miss for a historic day.
Oddsmakers from various sportsbooks have shared their insights on the weekend’s NFL and college football betting results.
For those unfamiliar, Xanadu refers to a 1980 fantasy film about two people who open a grand nightclub, symbolizing unattainable dreams in the betting world.
Wail To The Chiefs
As expected, the Kansas City Chiefs remained a favorite among bettors in Week 10. The point spread shifted from an opening line of Chiefs -9.5 to -7.5 and even -7 in some locations as the week progressed.
Despite the shifting odds, the allure of Patrick Mahomes kept the public engaged. When Kansas City narrowly secured a 16-14 victory on a last-second blocked field goal, sportsbooks welcomed this outcome.
However, the Chiefs often feature prominently in moneyline parlays, and many oddsmakers were hoping for the Broncos to convert a 35-yard field goal for a 17-16 win, which would have disrupted those parlays.
Jeff Sherman, senior vice president of risk at The SuperBook, remarked, “It would have been much better had Denver made the field goal. Either a Tampa or Denver win would have made it a larger [win] for the book.”
The Buccaneers also had opportunities to defeat the San Francisco 49ers, who were favored by 6.5 points on the road, but fell short with a 23-20 loss on a last-second field goal.
BetMGM would have preferred a Tampa upset as well. However, the sportsbook managed to navigate through Kansas City avoiding its first defeat of the season.
“That blocked kick actually helped. We wanted a K.C. win and a Denver cover,” noted BetMGM trader Christian Cipollini.
Moneyline Magic
Underdogs excelled with a 10-3 record against the spread (ATS) through the Sunday night game in NFL Week 10. This trend poses challenges for recreational bettors, who typically benefit when favorites perform well.
In the early games on Sunday, the Buffalo Bills (-4.5) were the sole favorite to cover the spread, defeating the Indianapolis Colts 30-20.
Cipollini stated, “Favorites going 1-7 ATS, that’s always good for the book.”
In addition to Kansas City and San Francisco, the Detroit Lions, known for their success among bettors, also faced challenges. On Sunday night, the Lions did not cover as 4-point road favorites against the Texans.
Despite trailing 23-7 at halftime, they rallied to win 26-23 with another last-second field goal.
The Bills and the Philadelphia Eagles (-7) both secured wins and covered their spreads, with the Eagles dominating the Dallas Cowboys 34-6. The Minnesota Vikings (-7) managed to defeat the Jaguars 12-7, despite only scoring four field goals.
Chris Andrews, director at South Point sportsbook, mentioned, “We had a ton of moneyline play on the favorites, and a lot of it was parlays.”
Sherman from The SuperBook added, “Enough of the popular favorites won: Chiefs, Niners, Bills, Eagles, Lions. It was [still] a decent day. We needed Texans outright at the end.”
Scott Shelton from BetMGM Nevada echoed this sentiment, stating, “We ended up a small winner. We really needed the Texans to win outright. There were a ton of moneyline parlays where the Lions were the last piece of the puzzle.
“We got slaughtered on Lions in-game, as well.”
In-game betting on popular favorites that fall behind is a trend that many public bettors enjoy, and Detroit exemplified this perfectly on Sunday night.
On Campus
In college football, Week 11 odds highlighted a consensus around the Georgia vs. Ole Miss matchup in the SEC. Most sportsbooks were hoping the 2-point home underdog Rebels would cover the spread.
Better yet, sportsbooks celebrated Ole Miss’s outright victory, as they stunned everyone with a 28-10 win.
Seamus Magee, trading manager at BetMGM, noted, “Ole Miss outright is one of the biggest wins of the year for the house.”
Andrews from South Point added, “Ole Miss was very good for us.”
On the other hand, Alabama, a 2.5-point road favorite, crushed LSU with a score of 42-13, which was not favorable for bookmakers.
Andrews remarked, “That was bad. We needed LSU. But overall, it was a good, solid day.”
Aiding South Point and other sportsbooks was Indiana, a team known for covering spreads, finally failing to do so. The Hoosiers were hefty 14.5-point home favorites against Michigan, narrowly winning 20-15.
Indiana remains undefeated at 10-0 straight up (SU) and holds an impressive 8-2 against the spread (ATS), but their eight-game spread-covering streak came to an end.
Andrews concluded, “I think the numbers have finally caught up to Indiana. That was a good game for us.”
