2024 College Football Week 10 action reveals that it’s one-way action on Penn State. This dynamic adds complexity to sports betting, particularly for the highly anticipated matchup this week.
The showdown between Ohio State and Penn State, featured as the FOX Big Noon Kickoff on Saturday, brings uncertainty to the Nittany Lions’ lineup. Quarterback Drew Allar is dealing with a knee issue and remains questionable as game day approaches, potentially leading to a last-minute decision.
Despite the uncertainty surrounding Allar, betting enthusiasts are showing confidence in the Nittany Lions.
Joey Feazel, head of football trading at Caesars Sports, noted, “We’re still waiting on the news. But the money coming in is suggesting Allar is gonna play.”
College Football Rocks On FOX
Week 10 is set to deliver one of the most significant Big Noon Kickoffs of the season as the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions clash at noon ET. Penn State stands undefeated at 7-0 straight up (SU) but struggles with a 3-4 record against the spread (ATS), while Ohio State holds a 6-1 SU record and a 3-4 ATS mark.
Initially, Caesars Sports listed Ohio State as a 4-point favorite, which adjusted to -4.5 before dropping to -3.5, where it has stabilized for most of the week.
“It’s been one-way action on Penn State with the point spread,” Feazel explained, adding that the total points bet runs counter to this trend. “The total has gone down, which doesn’t correlate to Allar playing.”
The total points opened at 46.5, peaked at 47.5 on Sunday, and has since receded to 45.
On-Campus Sharp Side
College football expert Paul Stone successfully predicted LSU +2.5 at Texas A&M last week, where the Tigers triumphed 38-23. This week, he shifts focus to a lower-profile game featuring a team with a standout victory.
Vanderbilt, often seen as a struggling team, currently boasts a 5-3 SU record and an impressive 6-2 ATS. The Commodores pulled off a stunning upset against Alabama, winning 40-35 as 23-point underdogs in Week 5.
Last week, Vanderbilt fought back from a 21-7 deficit against Texas, ultimately losing 27-24 while playing as 17-point home underdogs.
This Saturday, Vanderbilt takes on Auburn as a 7-point underdog in a 12:45 p.m. ET kickoff. With quarterback Diego Pavia leading the charge, the Commodores have gone 5-0 ATS as underdogs this season, including three outright wins as double-digit underdogs.
Stone describes Vanderbilt as a public underdog against Auburn but remains optimistic about their chances.
“Pavia thrives in the underdog role,” Stone remarked. “Vanderbilt is a solid football team overall. Under Coach Clark Lea, the Commodores have developed a belief in themselves. This season marks several milestones for Vanderbilt, and I will support them until they falter.”
ACC Action
The ACC features several matchups this week that could impact College Football Playoff standings. Among these is the clash between No. 18 Pittsburgh and No. 20 SMU. The Panthers are undefeated at 7-0 SU and hold a 6-1 ATS record, while the Mustangs are 7-1 SU with a 5-3 ATS record.
Caesars opened the line for Southern Methodist at -7 on Sunday, adjusted to -8 on Monday, then returned to -7 on Tuesday morning. By Tuesday afternoon, SMU settled at -7.5, where it remained late Wednesday night.
“Both teams are high-scoring, so bettors are leaning towards the Over,” Feazel noted.
Interestingly, the total has dipped slightly, opening at 59.5 and settling at 58.5 late Wednesday.
Florida-Georgia Line
The matchup between Florida and Georgia has historically been a significant event. While recent struggles have dulled the Gators’ prominence, they enter Saturday’s neutral-site game in Jacksonville with a 4-3 SU and ATS record, having won three of their last four games and going 4-0 ATS.
The Gators’ only loss in that stretch came against a formidable Tennessee team, where they pushed the Vols to overtime before falling 23-17. Feazel emphasizes that Florida’s schedule has been particularly challenging.
“Florida has faced one of the toughest schedules in college football history, and they are holding their own. I anticipate a competitive game,” he stated.
Georgia, with a 6-1 SU and 2-5 ATS record, initially opened as a 17-point favorite at Caesars but has since dropped to -16. Despite this adjustment, early bettors are favoring Georgia.
“We’re seeing consistent action on Georgia to cover that 16,” Feazel reported.
I Like Big Bets And I Cannot Lie
As of late Wednesday night, major wagers on college football Week 10 odds were sparse. However, the Ohio State-Penn State matchup has attracted a notable bet of $15,000 on Penn State +3.5.
If the Nittany Lions manage to stay within a field goal, the bettor stands to gain $13,636, culminating in a total payout of $28,636.
Additionally, Caesars recorded an $11,000 wager on Indiana -7.5 against Michigan State. The Hoosiers have an impressive 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS record this season, tying with BYU for the top spread-covering record in the nation. If Indiana secures a win on the road Saturday, the bettor will earn a $10,000 profit, resulting in a total payout of $21,000.
