2024 College Football picks Week 15: Back low-scoring 1st half Georgia-Texas. This week promises to deliver crucial insights into college football dynamics.
Fans and bettors alike will enjoy the thrill of following these games as they unfold, especially with the stakes so high.
Before delving into the weekend’s best betting opportunities, let’s take a closer look at the matchups for conference championship weekend.
(All times ET)
FRIDAY, DEC. 6
No. 19 UNLV @ No. 10 Boise State (8 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports app)
A wager is on the line for the Mountain West Conference championship game.
This rematch follows a previous contest where Boise State edged UNLV 29-24 in Las Vegas. This time, the game is set against the backdrop of Albertson Stadium’s iconic blue turf on a chilly evening. A unique betting strategy involves fading Southern California teams like UCLA and USC when they venture to the Pacific Northwest or mountainous regions in November.
The cold weather can be a shock to teams accustomed to warmer climates, and UNLV could face similar challenges.
Traveling from their sunny home, the Rebels might struggle against the elements. While Boise State’s recent performances have raised concerns, their star running back, Ashton Jeanty, remains a focal point of their offense despite being banged up. He has consistently carried the ball, averaging fewer than 30 carries only once in the last seven games. UNLV will certainly be aware of Jeanty’s potential impact on Friday night.
While Jeanty is a formidable player, the Rebels will be prepared to counter his influence.
UNLV’s strategy will likely focus on containing Jeanty, which could create opportunities for Boise State quarterback Maddux Madsen to exploit the passing game. The Rebels rank poorly in defending against pass plays over 10 yards, placing them at 110th nationally. They also struggle with allowing explosive plays, ranking 93rd for passes over 20 yards and 57th for those exceeding 30 yards. This trend could spell trouble for them against Boise State’s aerial attack.
SATURDAY, DEC. 7
No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 2 Texas (4 p.m., ABC)
This matchup features a highly anticipated SEC conference title game between two teams that clashed earlier this season.
Georgia triumphed 30-15 at Texas, showcasing their ability to disrupt the Longhorns’ offensive line and thwart their game plan. The Bulldogs established an early lead of 23-0, with Texas managing to narrow the gap before Georgia regained control.
Will Saturday’s game mirror their previous encounter?
Following the loss to Georgia, Texas has committed to a run-heavy offensive strategy. Quintrevion Wisner, the Longhorns’ primary running back, has seen significant carries, with at least 17 in four of the last five games since their defeat. His recent performances include 26 and 33 carries in his last two outings.
Despite the absence of left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr., Texas boasts a Joe Moore Award finalist offensive line, which should enhance their chances against Georgia’s formidable defense. A strong rushing attack will help minimize reliance on quarterback Quinn Ewers, which aligns with Texas’s preferred strategy.
Both teams are likely to adopt conservative game plans early on, focusing on their ground games as they assess each other’s defenses.
A bet on the first half under of 23.5 points appears promising given these factors.
No. 3 Penn State vs. No. 1 Oregon (8 p.m., CBS)
In this matchup, rather than taking a side, attention shifts to the total points for Penn State.
The Nittany Lions have faced challenges in scoring over the last three games against formidable opponents like Ohio State and Michigan, teams that mirror Oregon’s defensive strength. Despite decent offensive efficiency, Penn State struggles to create explosive plays, which could be detrimental against Oregon’s robust defensive line.
Oregon’s defense ranks impressively in havoc rate, recently showcasing their prowess by sacking the Washington quarterback 10 times.
Penn State’s offensive strategy relies heavily on a strong running game and utilizing tight end Tyler Warren effectively. When they fail to secure positive yardage on first down, they often find themselves in unfavorable passing situations.
Oregon excels in pass defense, leading the nation in contested targets and ranking high in limiting open targets. If they can contain the rush and restrict wide receiver production, it seems unlikely that Penn State will surpass 22.5 points.
A bet on Penn State under 22.5 points looks favorable based on these insights.
