2024 College Football picks Week 14 suggest fading UCLA and backing Penn State to cover the spread. With the regular season drawing to a close, the stakes are high as teams prepare for the playoffs.
The excitement of a 12-team playoff format adds an extra layer of intrigue this year, making every game count.
As the thrilling conference matchups loom next week, there are some strategic wagers to consider that could yield profitable returns.
Here are the best bets for college football Week 14.
(All times ET)
SATURDAY, NOV. 30
Fresno State @ UCLA (3:30 p.m., BTN)
One effective strategy in the final week of the regular season is to bet against a team coming off a rivalry loss with little motivation left to play.
UCLA began the season poorly with a 1-5 record but briefly revived hopes with three consecutive victories. However, losses to Washington and USC have left the Bruins in a precarious position, dampening their postseason aspirations.
After failing to score against USC last week, UCLA’s bowl eligibility is no longer an option, and they have little left to fight for this weekend.
With senior players eyeing the NFL Combine and others considering transfers, the team’s focus appears to be shifting away from the game.
On the other hand, Fresno State enters this matchup as a motivated Mountain West team, fresh off a significant upset victory over Colorado State.
Having grown up in Southern California as a UCLA fan, the dynamics of California college football are familiar. When a Group of Five team like Fresno State faces off against a powerhouse like UCLA, the players often carry a chip on their shoulder.
Many athletes from Fresno State were overlooked by the major California schools and are eager to prove themselves against these traditional rivals. This matchup presents a prime opportunity for Fresno State to capitalize on UCLA’s vulnerability.
In addition to the emotional drive, Fresno State boasts competitive statistics. The Bulldogs rank 73rd in offensive points per drive and 49th in defensive points per drive, while UCLA ranks significantly lower at 113th and 107th, respectively.
Despite facing tougher opponents in the Big Ten, the statistical profiles of these teams reveal a closer match than expected. Getting over a touchdown with Fresno State, who is hungry for a win, is an appealing bet.
I recommend taking Fresno State to cover the spread.
Maryland @ No. 4 Penn State (3:30 p.m., BTN)
For Penn State, this game presents a significant opportunity. Head coach James Franklin is likely to ensure his team scores enough late in the game to cover the spread.
Similar to UCLA, Maryland finds itself in a challenging position, having struggled throughout the latter half of the season.
The Terrapins have faced a tough stretch, winning only once in their last seven games, with their lone victory being a narrow one-point win against USC. They have lost by at least 14 points in every other game during this period, culminating in a quarterback benching after a disappointing performance against Iowa.
As the Nittany Lions pursue a playoff berth, they excel at stifling struggling teams and scoring late to cover spreads.
With Maryland’s quarterback situation uncertain and a lack of motivation, their scoring potential appears limited. Penn State’s defense has consistently performed well, even against formidable offenses like Ohio State.
The Nittany Lions offense will face a Maryland defense that ranks poorly in scoring and passing success rate, having allowed substantial points to teams like Oregon and Minnesota.
Expect Penn State to score effectively in this matchup.
