2024 College Football picks Week 10 highlight a significant matchup this weekend as No. 4 Ohio State prepares to clash with No. 3 Penn State.
Fans can catch the action live on FOX and through the FOX Sports app.
In this showdown, an intriguing betting angle emerges, one that may surprise many.
Read on to discover why backing the Under is the smart play for this highly anticipated Big Ten confrontation, along with a few additional best bets for a thrilling weekend of college football.
(All times ET)
Saturday, Nov. 2
No. 4 Ohio State @ No. 3 Penn State (noon, FOX and FOX Sports app)
Concerns arise regarding the scoring abilities of both teams in this matchup.
Ohio State boasts elite talent at wide receiver and quarterback in Will Howard, yet their offensive line is currently in disarray, with left tackle Josh Simmons sidelined and his backup likely out as well.
Last weekend’s game against Nebraska showcased the repercussions of Simmons’s absence, as the offense struggled to gain traction. They also faced challenges running the ball against Oregon when Simmons left that game.
The Ohio State offense, designed to emphasize a run-first approach under Chip Kelly, is hindered by these injuries.
On the other hand, Penn State’s defensive line is formidable, ranking 11th in points allowed per drive. The Nittany Lions excel at creating havoc and limiting explosive plays. Despite Ohio State’s explosive potential, they often fail to capitalize on it.
Penn State also faces uncertainty at quarterback, as Drew Allar may be sidelined with a knee injury. Regardless, the Nittany Lions struggle to generate explosive plays from their wide receivers. While they feature a standout tight end, it may not suffice against Ohio State’s defense. Penn State managed only 21 points against Illinois and scraped by with 28 against Wisconsin.
The expectation is that the Nittany Lions will find it challenging to score against the toughest defense they’ve encountered this season. Thus, the Under is the recommended wager.
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Air Force @ No. 21 Army (noon, CBS)
Within college football, Army’s offense leads the nation in points per drive.
Indeed, the Black Knights score more points per drive than any other team.
They rank second in rushing success rate and fourth in passing success rate, likely due to their infrequent passing attempts. Additionally, they lead in red zone success rate. Army’s scoring prowess is impressive, especially considering Air Force’s defense allows an average of five touchdowns per game on the road.
Air Force currently struggles, sitting at 1-6 and has not covered a single game this season. Their defense ranks 98th in points allowed per drive and 103rd in defensive EPA against the rush, allowing numerous big plays.
Betting on the Over in service academy matchups can be tricky due to the high volume of rushing attempts. Data indicates that when both teams rely heavily on the run, it reduces the number of possessions for each team, leading to fewer scoring opportunities.
However, Air Force is defying this trend this season due to its ineffective offense.
While Army’s opponents average nine offensive possessions per game this season, teams facing Air Force are averaging 11 possessions due to the Falcons’ inability to convert first downs.
Assuming an average of 10 possessions for Army, it is reasonable to expect the Black Knights to score a touchdown on five of those drives.
USC @ Washington (7:30 p.m., BTN)
Washington has demonstrated a strong home-field advantage, boasting a 4-0 record at home while struggling to secure victories on the road, sitting at 0-4. USC has a similar trend, with a 1-3 record away from home and 3-1 at home.
The upcoming game takes place in Seattle, which bodes well for Washington.
Washington has not played at home for a month, while USC must contend with the cold conditions in Huskies territory. Both Washington’s offense and defense show a 25% improvement on third down when playing at home compared to on the road. The Huskies excel at stopping the run and rushing the passer, a trend influenced by their opponents, including USC, which features a struggling offensive line.
On the flip side, USC’s defensive line is only marginally better.
This matchup poses a significant challenge for the Trojans. Notably, USC has been a road favorite three times this season and has yet to secure a victory in any of those contests. Head coach Lincoln Riley’s record stands at 3-13 against the spread (ATS) as a road favorite in his last 16 opportunities, reflecting a troubling trend.
Washington is favored to cover in this matchup.
