2024 CFP semifinal picks indicate that bettors should fade Notre Dame while backing the Buckeyes directly. Will the Fighting Irish continue to prove their critics wrong, or will they falter against formidable opponents once again? Are the Ohio State Buckeyes merely human, or do they possess the momentum to keep their winning streak alive?
Read on to discover insights into the semifinal matchups and where smart money might land.
(All times ET)
THURSDAY, JAN. 9
No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 6 Penn State (7:30 p.m., ESPN)
Both Notre Dame and Penn State share similar strategies, focusing on dominating the line of scrimmage, establishing a strong run game, and minimizing risky passing situations. This approach aims to prevent quarterback errors and maintain possession of the football.
Currently, Notre Dame ranks second in the nation for rushing yards per attempt, with quarterback Riley Leonard being a pivotal contributor to this success. Meanwhile, Penn State holds the 17th spot in the same category, thanks to a balanced two-running-back system. However, an injury to Notre Dame’s star running back, Jeremiyah Love, raises questions about his effectiveness on game day.
While the coaching staff insists that Love will play, the extent of his impact remains uncertain. In their initial playoff games, Notre Dame’s rushing performance suffered due to this injury. They managed 198 rushing yards against Indiana, but nearly half of that total came from a single play. Against Georgia, their ground game yielded only 154 yards on 37 carries, with primary backs contributing a mere 56 yards on 16 attempts.
In short, the Irish’s rushing attack has not lived up to its reputation against tougher competition in recent weeks.
On the other hand, Penn State’s run game has thrived this postseason, albeit against less formidable defenses. The Nittany Lions showcased their prowess by amassing nearly 300 rushing yards against Oregon in the Big Ten Championship, demonstrating their depth and health in the backfield.
Both teams aim to avoid putting their quarterbacks in must-throw scenarios. However, a pressing concern for Notre Dame is their ability to generate offense if their rushing attack falters, especially given their lack of an explosive passing game. In contrast, Penn State has shown the ability to create passing opportunities when necessary.
Turnover margin will also play a pivotal role in this matchup. Notre Dame has excelled in capitalizing on turnovers this season, leading the nation with 31 takeaways and boasting a turnover margin of +18. Relying on turnovers as a primary strategy can be risky; if Notre Dame fails to force any turnovers, their chances of winning significantly diminish.
FRIDAY, JAN. 10
No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 5 Texas (7:30 p.m., ESPN)
Ohio State is quickly gaining a reputation reminiscent of the 2019 LSU National Championship team, a powerhouse that could dismantle any opponent in its path to the title.
Following a surprising loss to Michigan at the end of the regular season, the Buckeyes revamped their offensive strategy, focusing heavily on their talented NFL-caliber receivers. The results have been impressive, with Ohio State scoring 42 points against Tennessee and 41 against Oregon, only scaling back their offensive efforts in the latter game.
Quarterback Will Howard has been exceptional, completing 41 of 55 passes for 630 yards in those games. While he may face a tougher challenge against Texas, the Longhorns’ defensive strengths may not be enough to slow him down.
Texas’s defensive line presents a formidable challenge for Ohio State’s offensive line, which is missing some key players. However, the Buckeyes have performed well against strong defensive fronts, including those of Tennessee and Oregon.
A significant concern for Texas lies within its secondary. The Longhorns have not encountered a passing attack of Ohio State’s caliber this season. Their closest matchups were against Georgia and Clemson, both of which exposed vulnerabilities in Texas’s pass defense.
The matchup between Texas’s offense and Ohio State’s defense raises additional concerns. Texas has consistently underperformed offensively throughout the season, falling short of projected scores in seven of their nine conference games, including significant deficits in both contests against Georgia.
If Texas relies heavily on quarterback Quinn Ewers to secure a victory, their chances may be slim. Ohio State’s defense is well-equipped to counter Texas’s preferred outside zone strategy, adding to the Longhorns’ challenges.
Expect Ohio State to cover the spread, while predicting Texas to struggle to score more than 23.5 points.
