2024 CFP quarterfinal picks indicate that Penn State is poised to win and cover against Boise State. This matchup promises to be an exciting clash of styles, as both teams bring unique strengths to the field.
Boise State enjoyed a remarkable season, earning a tie for the postseason’s first round and securing a coveted bye. However, this does not necessarily place them above teams like Indiana or SMU, both of which struggled significantly against their opponents in earlier rounds.
The expectation is for Boise State to face similar challenges in this matchup.
The Broncos’ only defeat this season came against the top-ranked Oregon Ducks, where they fell short by just three points in a tightly contested game in Eugene back in September.
However, relying on that past performance to forecast the outcome of this upcoming game could be misleading. Nearly four months have passed since that match, and teams, coaching staff, and player dynamics can shift dramatically over time.
For instance, the New Orleans Saints started the NFL season strong, with their offensive coordinator being hailed as a future coaching star. Yet, their trajectory changed as the season progressed, illustrating how quickly fortunes can turn in sports.
Thus, using that earlier game as a barometer for this matchup would be unwise. However, it is relevant to analyze Boise State’s conference schedule and its implications for their performance against Indiana and SMU.
According to SP+ metrics, Boise State faced only two teams ranked 38th in overall efficiency: UNLV, whom they narrowly defeated by five points in Las Vegas, and then secured a two-touchdown victory at home to conclude their season. The rest of their conference opponents ranked significantly lower, between 95 and 120.
This lack of competitive scheduling raises concerns about their readiness for a team like Penn State.
This same strength-of-schedule argument was relevant when previewing Indiana and SMU’s games against Notre Dame and Penn State, respectively. Boise State is set to face a level of competition they have not encountered all season. The physicality, size, and athleticism of Penn State will present a formidable challenge.
While Boise State’s standout running back Ashton Jeanty is undoubtedly a key player, questions arise about his ability to perform against Penn State’s tough rushing defense. If the ground game falters, can Boise State effectively rely on their passing game? Their defense, ranking 71st in yards allowed per play, adds another layer of concern. Meanwhile, Penn State’s offense, though sometimes lacking in explosive plays, has demonstrated the ability to move the ball consistently.
A final point to consider is the wagering dynamics surrounding Penn State. When the betting line shows a plus symbol next to their name, it often signals a tendency for the Nittany Lions to struggle against the spread. In contrast, when they are favored with a minus sign, they have a strong history of covering the spread, with head coach James Franklin boasting an impressive 19-1-1 record when his team is favored between seven and 24 points.
