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2024 College Football Playoff first-round picks favor Penn State to cover directly.
As bowl season unfolds, the anticipation for the College Football Playoff intensifies. Unlike the typical bowl games, where players often sit out to focus on the NFL draft or transfer options, this year marks a historic moment for college football. Twelve teams are set to compete fiercely for the coveted national championship title.
The opening round features exciting matchups: No. 8 Ohio State faces No. 9 Tennessee, No. 7 Notre Dame hosts No. 10 Indiana, No. 6 Penn State takes on No. 11 SMU, and No. 5 Texas battles No. 12 Clemson. The top four seeds—No. 1 Oregon, No. 2 Georgia, No. 3 Boise State, and No. 4 Arizona State—await the winners in the quarterfinals.
Two first-round matchups stand out for analysis. Let’s examine the best bets for these games.
(All times ET)
No. 10 Indiana @ No. 7 Notre Dame (Friday, 8 p.m., ABC/ESPN)
The inaugural game of the 12-team College Football Playoff era features an intriguing all-Indiana clash.
The unexpected rise of the Hoosiers, with an impressive 11-1 record, sets the stage for a showdown in South Bend against the equally formidable 11-1 Irish, who have dominated their opponents throughout the season. Indiana boasts an efficient offense, ranking second in points per drive, complemented by a robust run defense among the nation’s elite. Meanwhile, Notre Dame’s path to this playoff spot was secured with a significant Week 1 victory over Texas A&M, followed by consistent performances, aside from a slip against Northern Illinois.
Interestingly, both teams have faced similar levels of competition, despite their differing conference affiliations.
Indiana’s defensive strategy primarily involves zone coverage, which could be advantageous when Notre Dame finds itself in third-and-long situations.
For Notre Dame to establish a ground game, quarterback Leonard must play a pivotal role. Averaging nearly six yards per carry, Leonard presents a challenge for Indiana, who has yet to face a quarterback of his caliber this season. His mobility will be crucial for the Irish, particularly on first downs. Additionally, Leonard’s ability to scramble during critical third downs could be a game-changer if the Hoosiers’ coverage tightens.
No. 11 SMU @ No. 6 Penn State (Saturday, noon, TNT/Max)
This game presents a classic scenario for Penn State under coach James Franklin.
Despite criticism for not winning against top-five teams, Franklin’s squads consistently perform well against the spread in these matchups. When favored by seven to 24 points, Penn State boasts an impressive 18-1-1 record against the spread.
Currently, the Nittany Lions are nine-point favorites at home against SMU.
With superior performance in both the offensive and defensive lines, coupled with the creativity displayed in their recent game against Oregon, Penn State should find ways to score against the Mustangs’ defense. Ranked 11th in offensive efficiency, Penn State has demonstrated their capability to exploit defenses similar to SMU’s, having allowed at least 27 points against comparable teams such as Clemson, Louisville, and TCU. This trend does not bode well for SMU as they prepare for Saturday’s contest.
While SMU’s offense can be explosive, concerns linger regarding its rushing attack. The Mustangs rank in the middle tier for rushing success and their running backs struggle to break tackles, sitting at 118th in yards per carry after contact. To establish a successful ground game, they will need to find consistent rushing lanes, which appears challenging given the Nittany Lions’ defensive prowess.
This matchup marks a historic moment in College Football Playoff history, as a team from a warmer climate travels to a colder destination for a playoff game. Typically, postseason games occur in familiar weather conditions for both teams, making this scenario particularly unique.
Whether this climatic shift impacts the outcome remains uncertain, but past instances suggest that weather can influence game results significantly.
Lastly, SMU’s tendency to incur penalties could prove detrimental, especially in front of an unfamiliar and potentially intimidating crowd. Ranking 131st in penalty yards per game, their discipline will be tested in this critical playoff atmosphere.
