2024 CFP action report reveals that the prevailing sentiment among bettors is clear: “We’ll probably need Ohio State to win, Notre Dame to cover.” This matchup showcases two storied programs, Ohio State and Notre Dame, both steeped in tradition and boasting passionate fanbases.
As the countdown to Monday night’s championship game in Atlanta ticks down to just four days, the betting public is leaning heavily towards the Fighting Irish, who are expected to cover the spread set at over a touchdown.
Joey Feazel, head of football trading at Caesars Sports, mentioned, “We saw and continue to see an onslaught of Notre Dame money coming in.” This trend highlights the confidence among bettors in the Irish’s ability to perform under pressure.
Feazel, alongside college football betting analyst Paul Stone, shares their insights on the championship odds, emphasizing the unique dynamics of this matchup.
Narrowing The Gap
Notably, Notre Dame’s thrilling 27-24 win over Penn State as a 1.5-point underdog in the semifinals has fueled their momentum. However, Ohio State (13-2 SU/9-6 ATS) has emerged as a formidable contender in this inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff. The Buckeyes have showcased their dominance, going 3-0 SU and ATS in the postseason, with all victories coming by at least ten points.
In their semifinal clash, Ohio State sealed a 28-14 victory against Texas, aided by a crucial strip-sack-scoop-and-score, demonstrating their defensive prowess.
Despite the Buckeyes’ strong performance, early betting trends show the public favoring Notre Dame. The initial line opened at Ohio State -9.5 but has since dropped to -8, indicating a shift in bettor confidence. Feazel noted, “Last week, we saw sharp money late, fading Ohio State against Texas, with that line going from -6 to -5.5 and even -5.” This suggests that sharper bettors are starting to back the Irish as kickoff approaches.
While the betting action may continue to favor Notre Dame, Feazel anticipates an increase in wagers on Ohio State, particularly on the point spread. The attractive Notre Dame moneyline of +310 may draw in casual bettors looking for a bigger payout.
Feazel concluded, “We’ll probably need Ohio State to win and Notre Dame to cover.” This scenario reflects the complex nature of sports betting, where public sentiment often diverges from the odds.
On-Campus Sharp Side
Paul Stone has accurately predicted all three of his picks in the CFP thus far. He initially backed Notre Dame -7 against Indiana, resulting in a 27-17 victory for the Irish. Next, he selected Arizona State as a 13.5-point underdog against Texas, where the Sun Devils managed to force overtime before losing by eight points.
In the semifinals, Stone confidently chose Ohio State -5.5 against Texas. For the championship game, he is once again backing the Buckeyes.
Initially, Ohio State was listed as high as a 10.5-point favorite at some sportsbooks, but the consensus now stands at an 8-point favorite over Notre Dame.
While acknowledging Notre Dame’s accomplishments this season, Stone emphasizes that Ohio State is on a mission following their narrow 13-10 loss to Michigan at home. He advises bettors to lay the 8 points and support the Buckeyes in this championship clash.
“Ohio State is probably the square side here,” Stone remarked. “But the Buckeyes have found another gear in the Playoffs and possess too much firepower for Notre Dame.”
Quarterback Will Howard of Ohio State, despite a history of 35 interceptions in his five-year collegiate career, has shown remarkable accuracy during the CFP. He has completed 65 of 88 passes for 919 yards, averaging 10.4 yards per attempt, with six touchdowns and two interceptions.
Stone added, “If Howard protects the ball and doesn’t turn it over, I think Ohio State is going to be a tough out for the Fighting Irish.”
I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
Earlier this week, Mattress Mack made headlines with a $1.5 million wager on Texas +390 to win the championship, which now appears to be a sizeable donation to Caesars Sports.
Other significant bets remain active in the College Football Playoff championship odds. Caesars has reported a few larger bets on Ohio State, including one placed just after the first round of the CFP:
- $29,200 Ohio State +380 to win the championship. If the Buckeyes triumph over the Irish, the bettor stands to gain $110,960 (total payout $140,160).
- $85,500 Ohio State -115 to win the title. This wager was made on January 6, ahead of the Buckeyes’ semifinal victory against Texas. While the payout is not as substantial, it still amounts to $74,348 (total payout $159,848).
A notable bet was placed on September 9, shortly after Notre Dame’s loss to Northern Illinois, when some sportsbooks offered odds as high as +10000 (100/1) on the Fighting Irish. Even at 80/1, this remains a lucrative opportunity. If Notre Dame secures an upset victory and lifts the trophy on Monday night, the bettor could see a profit of $40,000.
While it may not be +8000, a $10,000 win is still a possibility for the Irish, ensuring a celebratory round of drinks for the bettor the next time they visit Las Vegas.
Wake up the echoes, everyone!
