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Ohio State’s Dominance Sparks Major Line Shifts in 2024 CFP Action Report

2024 CFP action report: Ohio State's 'impressive' play causing lines to shift

2024 College Football Playoff action report highlights how Ohio State’s impressive play is shifting the odds significantly. 

The Buckeyes have demonstrated remarkable skill and determination throughout the first two rounds of the newly expanded 12-team tournament, earning the respect of analysts and fans alike.

“Ohio State has been thoroughly impressive twice. The team has played better than expectations,” said Johnny Avello, the director of operations at DraftKings Sportsbook. “And they’re playing with a chip on their shoulder. They just look really good right now.”

Avello provided valuable insights regarding the College Football Playoff odds for the upcoming semifinals.

The New No. 1

At the start of the College Football Playoff, Ohio State entered as the No. 8 seed. Many believed that the No. 9 seed, Tennessee, would upset the Buckeyes in the opening round.

However, Ohio State decisively won that match with a score of 42-17. In the quarterfinals at the Rose Bowl, they quickly established dominance, racing to a 34-0 lead by the end of the second quarter and finishing with a 41-21 victory over Oregon.

Now, as the tournament progresses, the No. 8 seed has transformed into the favorite in DraftKings Sportsbook’s CFP championship odds, currently sitting at even money (+100). This means that if Ohio State wins the championship on January 20, a $100 bet would yield a $100 profit (total payout of $200).

Before that potential triumph, they must face the No. 5 seed, Texas, in a semifinal matchup on January 10.

Given their outstanding performances thus far, Ohio State is favored by 6 points, even though the game will take place at the Cotton Bowl, just three hours from Texas’ Austin campus.

“Before the playoff started, this game was probably close to Ohio State -1/-1.5. But the way the Buckeyes have played and the way Texas played against Arizona State, that’s the reason for the big shift in the line,” Avello explained.

In their quarterfinal match, Texas surged to a 14-0 lead against Arizona State and maintained a 17-3 advantage at halftime. However, they were pushed into overtime, ultimately securing a 39-31 double-overtime victory.

Early betting action has created a puzzling situation for gamblers.

“I can’t say that there’s either side that’s getting hit harder. I think the 6 is making people think a little bit,” Avello noted.

Pluck of the Irish

Notre Dame’s continued success cannot be attributed solely to luck. Under Coach Marcus Freeman’s leadership, the Fighting Irish defeated Indiana 27-17 in the first round and showed resilience in a 23-10 quarterfinal victory over Georgia in the Sugar Bowl.

As the No. 7 seed, Notre Dame is a narrow 1.5-point favorite against No. 6 Penn State in the College Football Playoff semifinal odds, set for January 9 at the Orange Bowl.

Avello is uncertain about where the betting public will lean regarding the point spread. However, he anticipates that this matchup, along with the Cotton Bowl, will attract significant betting activity.

“When these games have been isolated, they have written a lot of money,” he stated, noting early action on the Notre Dame vs. Penn State game. “So far, we’re seeing a little bit of play on Notre Dame -1.5 and on Over 46.5.”

I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie

Caesars Sports is facing a massive seven-figure wager made during conference championship week. A customer from Louisiana placed an astonishing $1.5 million bet on Texas at +390 to win the national title.

Currently, the Longhorns are the +290 second choice at Caesars, trailing only the +100 favorite Ohio State. If Texas manages to upset Ohio State and advances past either Penn State or Notre Dame in the championship game, that bettor stands to gain a staggering $5.85 million, resulting in a total payout of $7.35 million.

The Fighting Irish have maintained their winning streak, and if they secure the championship, the bettor would earn a profit of $40,000.

For context, Notre Dame is currently at +400 to win the title, placing them third among the remaining teams. A $10,000 bet would be necessary to yield a $40,000 profit.

That customer must be feeling quite optimistic about their chances right now.

Source

Written By

Dave Gallo is a leading sports bettor and handicapper since 1999, known for his impressive 10-0 winning streaks. A journalism, advertising, and media studies major at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, he combines his betting expertise with academic knowledge. Gallo's strong work ethic and passion for sports fuel his ongoing success and scholarly pursuits.

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