The 2024 College Football Playoff (CFP) action report reveals that it’s been almost nothing but Buckeyes action at Caesars Sports, especially regarding the highly anticipated semifinal matchup between Ohio State and Texas in the Cotton Bowl this Friday night.
A Louisiana bettor made headlines a month ago by placing a staggering $1.5 million wager on Texas at +390 to win the National Championship. This significant bet has undoubtedly influenced Caesars’ strategy for the upcoming game.
Joey Feazel, head of football trading at Caesars Sports, expressed, “We’re probably gonna be rooting for that Super Bowl middle of Ohio State winning but not covering,” highlighting the unique dynamics of this betting scenario.
Feazel, along with college football expert Paul Stone, shares their insights on the odds for the College Football Playoff semifinals, shedding light on the current betting climate.
Opening Act
Before the Buckeyes and Longhorns clash, the Orange Bowl features Notre Dame taking on Penn State. Caesars opened the Fighting Irish as slight 1.5-point favorites, adjusting to -2 and then -2.5 for a brief period on Tuesday.
Bettors are leaning towards a lower-scoring affair, with the total initially set at 47, dropping to as low as 44.5 before settling at 45. Feazel noted, “That does reflect the action we’re seeing now. These two teams have strong defenses, and most of the action is on the Under.”
Both teams have shown a tendency to keep scores low in previous CFP appearances, with the Under being 2-0 for both Notre Dame and Ohio State.
The Fighting Irish enter the semifinals with a record of 13-1 straight up (SU) and 12-2 against the spread (ATS), making them one of the best teams in college football this season. Meanwhile, the Nittany Lions hold a 13-2 SU and 8-7 ATS record.
Buckeyes Bandwagon
Ohio State has displayed impressive form in the playoffs, winning their two games by an astonishing combined total of 45 points. In the quarterfinals, the Buckeyes (12-2 SU/8-6 ATS) raced to a 34-0 lead against Oregon, ultimately securing a 41-21 victory.
Conversely, Texas faced challenges, allowing a 24-8 fourth-quarter lead to slip away against Arizona State, leading to a double-overtime finish that ended 39-31 but did not cover the spread as 13.5-point favorites.
These contrasting performances prompted oddsmakers to adjust their outlook on the Ohio State vs. Texas matchup, which is set to kick off at 7:30 p.m. ET Friday. Initially opened at Buckeyes -4.5, the line quickly shifted to -5.5 and then to -6 by Wednesday night.
Feazel remarked, “What Ohio State opened at was really high. Some of the lookahead lines for that matchup were Ohio State -1.5/-2,” indicating a significant reaction based on the teams’ recent performances.
Despite the line movement, bettors appear comfortable wagering on Ohio State at -6, with a notable recency bias favoring the Buckeyes after their dominant playoff showings.
Ohio State is also attracting considerable moneyline attention, with current odds at -225, requiring a $225 wager to win $100 (total payout of $325). However, the looming $1.5 million bet on Texas to win the national title adds an intriguing layer to the betting landscape.
As highlighted, Caesars is hoping for an Ohio State victory paired with a Texas cover, allowing them to benefit from both the Buckeyes spread bets and the substantial Longhorns championship wager.
On-Campus Sharp Side
Paul Stone, having accurately predicted Arizona State’s cover against Texas in the quarterfinals, is now weighing in on the Ohio State vs. Texas matchup. His analysis leans against the Longhorns once again.
Stone noted, “It’s difficult to ignore the dominance displayed by Ohio State in its opening two playoff victories, over ninth-ranked Tennessee and top-ranked Oregon.” The Buckeyes averaged eight yards per play while limiting their opponents to only 3.8 yards.
He emphasized the confidence and purpose Ohio State has shown, particularly praising quarterback Will Howard for his improved performance and ball security.
Stone was particularly impressed by Ohio State’s explosive starts, leading Tennessee 21-0 in just 12 minutes and Oregon 31-0 within 22 minutes. “Ohio State has found another gear that the other three teams simply lack,” he asserted, warning that Texas could struggle if they fail to pressure Howard effectively.
I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
The $1.5 million wager on Texas to win the National Championship remains a significant factor for Caesars Sports. Should Texas upset Ohio State and continue their winning streak against either Penn State or Notre Dame, the bettor stands to gain a staggering $5.85 million, totaling a payout of $7.35 million.
In a related twist, an intriguing scenario has unfolded in the Notre Dame-Penn State matchup. After Notre Dame’s unexpected loss to Northern Illinois, a customer placed a $500 bet on the Fighting Irish at +8000 (80/1) to win the national title, which could yield a $40,000 profit if successful.
- Additionally, just this week, a Caesars customer wagered $165,000 on Penn State at +2 for their game against Notre Dame.
Should Notre Dame win by a single point, the Fighting Irish futures bet survives, potentially netting $40,000, while the Penn State bettor would walk away with $150,000 in profit (total payout of $315,000).
This makes for an exciting Thursday night of football. Fans and bettors alike will be watching closely as the semifinals unfold.
