Myth # 5: “Crushing the Bookies”
A typical misconception of novice sports bettors is that winners are crushing the bookies. The reality is that the bookies always win. Professional handicappers beat the losers.
Losers are casual gamblers who don’t have a system or gamble with emotion. Those individuals that simply promote a preferred team by betting without research suffer long-term losses that make bookies rich. By establishing or following a winning method, handicappers beat these losers.
Bookies collect a commission on all the lines they supply, referred to as the vig. No matter who wins, the bookie automatically gets a commission. As a result, one can not simply chase favorites and expect long-term profit. Watching sports-book favorites is a guaranteed way to failing. Statistically, sports-book favorites only win 56% of the time with odds of 1.66 or much worse. Over the course of 100 flat bets on massive favorites, novice bettors are unlikely to beat the odds.
Example: 100 Bets on Heavy Favorites;
On 56 winning wagers, this strategy averages 56 X (1.66-1) = $36.96 profit.
On 44 losing wagers, this strategy averages a bottom line of 44 x 1 = $44.
The net loss is over seven units when making use of a strategy that only bank on heavy favorites. Even with winning the majority of your bets, it is extremely difficult to turn a profit by catering only sports-book favorites at strong odds.
Favorites seem to be “stronger teams”, however a winning approach looks for value. In professional sports, the difference between the best and worst teams is less as it may seem. Blindly using favorites is proven to be a losing strategy.