Myth # 5: “Crushing the Bookies”
Losers are casual gamblers who don’t have a system or gamble with emotion. Those individuals that simply promote a preferred team by betting without research suffer long-term losses that make bookies rich. By establishing or following a winning method, handicappers beat these losers.
Bookies collect a commission on all the lines they supply, referred to as the vig. No matter who wins, the bookie automatically gets a commission. As a result, one can not simply chase favorites and expect long-term profit. Watching sports-book favorites is a guaranteed way to failing. Statistically, sports-book favorites only win 56% of the time with odds of 1.66 or much worse. Over the course of 100 flat bets on massive favorites, novice bettors are unlikely to beat the odds.
Example: 100 Bets on Heavy Favorites;
On 56 winning wagers, this strategy averages 56 X (1.66-1) = $36.96 profit.
On 44 losing wagers, this strategy averages a bottom line of 44 x 1 = $44.
The net loss is over seven units when making use of a strategy that only bank on heavy favorites. Even with winning the majority of your bets, it is extremely difficult to turn a profit by catering only sports-book favorites at strong odds.
Favorites seem to be “stronger teams”, however a winning approach looks for value. In professional sports, the difference between the best and worst teams is less as it may seem. Blindly using favorites is proven to be a losing strategy.