Myth #1: Win Rate
Should the accomplishment of sports prediction services be defined in “win percent rate” or profit? Can you go to the store and pay with a high “win percent rate”, or would you slightly favor the cash? In the end, lasting profit is the only gauge of worth in a sports prediction service. Win percent rate is one of the most immaterial measurements in sports investing, frequently used by handicappers as a trick to enticement new members.
As you identify, many professional handicappers offer extraordinary win percent rate s percentages of up to 99%, enticing greenhorn bettors into their con. 99% accuracy for sports selections is a myth, while accuracy rates of 53-60% are reflected to be top among professional handicappers. A high win rat percentage does not assurance profit, but seems essential to the inexperienced bettor.
Let’s take theoretical situations for Bettor 1 and Bettor 2 as models:
Bettor 1 makes fairly safe bets on heavy favorites with odds like 1.35 (-300). After 10 bets, Bettor 1 has won seven bets and lost only three. The result is a remarkable 70% win percent rate, which gets promoted as a glorious success by his handicapping service. A closer look, conversely, discloses that Bettor A’s approach is extremely flawed.
With the identical one-unit bets, Bettor 1 lost 1 x 3 = $3 on three losing bets.
The over-all is a net loss of $0.55 units for every ten bets made in this method.
Regardless of a gaudy 70% win percent rate, Bettor 1 actually loses more than half a unit for every ten bets.
Bettor 2 makes unsafe bets on underdog lines with larger value. Though Bettor 2 identifies that a 70% win percent rate is unlikely on odds like 2.10 (+110), there is long-standing value to this approach. Bettor 2 made ten bets and won only five, losing the other five bets. The result is a skimpy 50% win percent rate, which at first glance appears mediocre to the strategy of Bettor 1.
Using one-unit bets, Bettor 1 made (1.35×7)-7 = $2.45 on seven winning bets.
A profounder look discloses Bettor 2’s approach is actually quite extraordinary.
With one-unit bets, Bettor 2 lost 1 x 5 = $5 on five losing bets.
With just a 50% win percent rate, Bettor 2 made a profit of $0.50 units for every ten bets.
A high win percent rate does not assurance profits. The only appropriate gauge of the success of a sports investor should be long-standing profits and bankroll progression. Successful method betting approaches can turn profits with win percent rate s as low as 37%. Conversely, sports investors can win the vast majority of selections and still lose money. The only long-standing measurement for success is profits, predominantly when money management philosophies are correctly applied to a winning method.
Don’t be hoodwinked by services highlighting a high win percent rate! Profits are all that matters!