1:10 p.m. ET | Tigers at Mets| Sharp Line Movement: Tigers (moved from +165 to +154)
The Tigers are highlighting Spencer Turnbull, which undoubtedly helps their chances. Turnbull has recorded a sub-3.0 ERA this season after a dreadful 2018 first appearance in which he had an ERA over 6.0 in 16.1 innings of work. The Tigers bats will get to face Zack Wheeler, who has struggled a bit this season after a tremendous 2018. Wheeler has an ERA of nearly 5.0, but with a K/9 over 10 and legitimately unlucky BABIP, enhanced metrics recommend he should positively regress going forward.
A steam move on the Tigers struck the market shortly before 9 a.m. ET, moving their line down about 10 cents from +165.
2:10 p.m. ET | Red Sox at Astros | Sharp Line Movement: Red Sox (moved from+170 to +153)
Boston and Eduardo Rodriguez are getting just 29% of bets, but the line has moved nearly 20 cents in their favor. I’ve tracked two bet signals on the Sox and none on the Astros, while Boston is also getting 10% more money than bets. If the Red Sox close above +150, it would be the first time they’ve done so this season. Over the past two years, there have been 13 instances of them closing at +150 or higher, and they’ve fared quite well, posting an 8-5 record for +8.0 units.
7:05 p.m. ET | Braves at Cardinals | Sharp Line Movement: Cardinals (moved from -135 to -151)
Julio Teheran is once yet again permitting fewer runs than the enhanced metrics suggest he should. He’s made a habit of this, as he’s posted an ERA lower than his FIP in every season since 2013. Though he’s walking 4.26 men per nine innings this year, he’s managed an ERA of 3.67 thanks to a low BABIP and high left-on-base percentage. At this point, it may just be a skill of his rather than luck.
Smart Money knows deep down that Flaherty is the more gifted arm, and they’re taking him in spite of the lack of public support. The Braves are a trendy dog with 57% of the bets, but the line has moved a good chunk in the direction of Flaherty and the Cardinals. Taking into account after some initial back and forth action, with the line moving a couple of points here and there towards both teams, a steam move hit the Cardinals at around 8 a.m. this morning to push their line over -150.