MLB 5/24/19 Sharp Line Movements: Red Sox @ Astros, Rays @ Indians & Padres @ Blue Jays

7:07 p.m. ET | Padres @ Blue Jays | Sharp Line Movement: Blue Jays (moved from +120 to +111)

The San Diego Padres (26-24) have a better record than Toronto (20-30) and Padres are on a three-game winning streak at the same time the blue Jays have dropped three of their last four. This game opened with the Padres listed as short -130 road favorites. Currently 62% of bets are backing Padres, but the line has moved away from the Padres (-130 to -120) and toward The Blue Jays Toronto (+120 to +111).

This particular line movement toward the underdog is a clear sign that the smart money is buying low on the home dog.

7:10 p.m. ET | Rays @ Indians| Sharp Line Movement: Indians (moved from +130 to +123)

Smart money cashed in on the Tampa Bay Rays last night, yet the smart money is fading them again tonight. The Rays (29-18) opened as a -141 road favorite as Blake Snell take the mound. Nearly 80% of bets are hammer the ML price with the Rays, anticipating an effortless win. On the other hand, in spite of this heavy public support, the Rays have dropped from -141 to -133. Why would the Rays’ price get better if the public better is already hammering them?

I’ve noticed two big steam moves on the Indians at +135 and +131 across the sports book market. This overload of smart money action dumped the Indians down to +123.

8:10 p.m. ET | Red Sox @ Astros | Sharp Line Movement: Red Sox (line has remained at -138)

The public perceives the powerful Astros at home as a succulent plus-ML home underdog and for avg. Joe public better that’s all they need to know. They are Hammering the Astros. The public is seeing this line that stinks and are buying low on Chris Sale and the Red Sox in an uncommon contrarian spot.

This featured game of the night opened with Red Sox listed as -140 road favorites and Houston a +120 home dog. Currently 62% of bets are backing the Astros, yet the ML hasn’t nudged from the opening odds. Most sport books still have Boston at -138 or higher.
I’ve tracked two steam and a few reverse line moves on the Red Sox, without any opposing moves on the Astros. This means the Astros support is all public Joe bettors without any smart money backing.

Posted in: MLB

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