7:10 p.m. ET | Nationals @ Mets | Sharp Line Movement: Over (*Line freeze at 6.5)
This is a perfect example of a NL East over/under. With two strong pichers facing off on the mound (Max Scherzer 3.72 ERA vs Jacob DeGrom 3.98 ERA), public bettors see a guaranteed low scoring 2-1 game, But not the smart money. They’re see an advantage on a contrarian over.
Currently 60% of bets are taking the under and the total opened at a low 6.5, but the under only accounts for 48% of the money, signaling predominantly what the average public Joe is backing. For the time being, regardless of the bulk of the betting going on the under, the total has remained the same frozen at 6.5. This means that the sport books are concerned about dropping the line to 6 and handing out a better number to sharps on the over.
7:10 p.m. ET | Marlins @ Tigers| Sharp Line Movement: Marlins (Moved from +107 to +102)
Smart money cashed in on playing the Marlins last night in a blockbuster manner, as Miami triumphed 5-4 in a marathon 11-inning win. The public better says the Marlins are an awful team and can’t conceivably win yet again tonight. But smart money isn’t falling into the gambler’s Vegas trap. Smart money buying low on a hot Marlins team to take another game in Detroit and extend their win streak to five consecutively.
This is a characteristic of reverse line movement, with smart money getting played heavy on the road dog and triggering the line to move counter to the percentages toward the unpopular side.
7:10 p.m. ET | Dodgers @ Rays| Sharp Line Movement: Rays (moved from +128 to +119)
The Dodgers line opened at moderate -139 as road favorites. Presently 61% of bets are going on the money-line with LA, but yet 63% of dollars are taking the plus money with Tampa Bay. This huge bets vs. money difference is a strong indication that big smart money from followed professional gamblers are hammering the home dog.
We’ve also seen sharp money line movement toward Tampa, as the Rays have moved from +128 down to +119 in spite of the public supporting the Dodgers.
*Line Freeze: When one team is receiving substantial amount of betting tickets/ money, but the line won’t move/shift, signaling sharp money liability on the other side.