MLB 5/21/19 Sharp Line Movement: Phillies @ Cubs, Marlins @ Tigers & D-Backs @ Padres

7:05 p.m. ET | Phillies @ Cubs | Sharp Line Movement: Under (moved from 8 to 7.5)

This total opened at 8. Total bets are split right down the middle, yet we’ve seen the line fall to 7.5, and the juice on under 7.5 is up to -125 or -130, signaling it may fall even further to 7. The under is getting only 50% of bets but 83% of dollars, signaling clear smart money on a low scoring game. I’ve also seen a pair of steam and reverse line moves on the under 7.5.
One last note the wind is howling in from right-center at a whopping 17 mph.

7:10 p.m. ET | Marlins @ Tigers | Sharp Line Movement: Marlins (moved from +107 to -105)

This line opened with the Tigers listed as short -116 home favorites. Despite receiving 55% of bets, we’ve seen this line fall away from Detroit (-116 to -103) and toward Miami (+107 to -105). This reverse line movement signals sharps getting down hard on Caleb Smith (3-1, 2.25 ERA) and the Fish.
I also noticed three separate steam and reverse line moves on the Marlins, all coming at around even-money. Still haven’t seen a single opposing line move or buyback on the Tigers.

10:10 p.m. ET | Diamondbacks @ Padres | Sharp Line Movement: Padres (moved from +104 to -104)

This game opened with Arizona listed as short -113 road favorite. Right off the bat, this line stinks. Why is Greinke only a -113 favorite? Seems too good to be true. Despite receiving 80% of bets, the Diamondbacks have fallen from -113 to -104, which means smart-money has loaded up on the Padres and moved this game to a pick’em.
Diamondbacks sending ace Zack Greinke (6-1, 2.78 ERA) to the hill tonight, public bettors see a “bounce-back” easy win tonight… But smart money not buying it. They’re fading Zack Greinke tonight.

Posted in: MLB

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